The Fix: 3rd District up a notch among House seats that could flip

In his latest congressional contest calibrations, Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post blog The Fix moves Minnesota’s 3rd District race up a notch on his list of U.S. House seats most likely to flip from one party to another. A month ago Cillizza had the race at No. 18. Today, noting new TV ads that could help DFLer Ashwin Madia, Cillizza’s got it at …

17. Minnesota’s 3rd district (R): This suburban Twin Cities district is playing host to a great congressional race to replace retiring Rep. Jim Ramstad (R). The contest looks like a toss-up but the DCCC is now up with a commercial casting state Sen. Erik Paulsen (R) as a career politician and Patriot Majority Midwest is also hammering Paulsen on TV. It could make the difference. (Previous ranking: 18)

A competitive U.S. House race is a rarity in time and space: Ramstad’s seat has stayed Republican for half a century, and no other U.S. House race in the Upper Midwest makes Cillizza’s Top 25 list. You have to go to Illinois to find a race that The Fix ranks as more competitive than Minnesota’s 3rd District, and contests in Kansas and Nevada only rank because Cillizza today expanded his list from 20 to 25 races.