What Does the Presidential Field Mean for Minnesota?

With Democratic Sen. Barack Obama’s announcement that he is officially exploring a run at the White House, it’s a good time to start reviewing the field of contenders on both sides of the aisle and how they will stack up strategically in the 2008 primaries. 

A caveat concerning this analysis: Minor candidates are not included.  As much as some in the liberal wing would love for Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich to be included here, the Congressman has said that he does not expect to win, only to influence the debate.  The same goes for California GOP Congressman Duncan Hunter.

Without further ado, on with the analysis.Democrats

The hallowed Conventional Wisdom says this is a three-horse race between Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards and Barack Obama.  But U.S. Sens. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden have access to strong fund-raising networks, and while they might not be darlings of the Netroots, they do have constituencies within the party.  Tom Vilsack is making some noise with innovative features on his website, and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson is stalking just outside the inner circle, having recently proved his foreign policy is bona fide.

What does all this mean for Minnesota?  Have a look at the Democratic primary schedule.  In theory, Vilsack should do well in his home state of Iowa, and Bill Richardson has a natural advantage in Nevada, hailing from a nearby Southwestern state and bringing a Hispanic background to the table.  Clinton has to expect a strong showing in New Hampshire, and Edwards probably expects the same from South Carolina.  In short, leading up to the first multi-primary on Feb. 5, 2008, there could be a four-way split on the leaderboard.  If the primaries on that date split along similar geographic lines, the picture could still be muddled by the time Minnesota rolls around in March. 

Of course, this is theoretical.  Geography isn’t everything, and in many of these contests, there are significant second and third prizes in terms of delegates.  But in many ways, this field may prove to be much more interesting than that of 2004, in which Howard Dean collapsed in Iowa, leaving John Kerry to clean up the pieces, move on to New Hampshire with a geographic advantage, and crush the competition on the first multi-state primary day.  In short, Minnesota could quite easily have a role to play in choosing the Democratic nominee.

Republicans

Although Minnesota has moved solidly back into the blue column with the results of the 2006 election, in some ways its role in the Republican presidential nomination has a higher profile than for the Democrats.  The 2008 Republican National Convention will be held in St. Paul, and Gov. Tim Pawlenty has been appointed co-chair of John McCain‘s exploratory committee (to say nothing of speculation that Pawlenty is on McCain’s vice-presidential short list).  Pawlenty is in a great geographic position to stump for the Arizona senator in Iowa, but McCain runs into trouble in New Hampshire, where former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney threaten to suck all the oxygen out of the room.  For some time, Romney has been making inroads with social conservatives across the country, including the early state of South Carolina, so that state’s primary is not a given either.  By the time the dust settles in the Feb. 5 primaries, we should have a better idea of the direction of the GOP nomination.

Again, geography is not everything.  But it does matter.  McCain’s success in the 2000 New Hampshire primary was eight years ago, an eternity in politics.  If Pawlenty can deliver Iowa and concurrently raise his own profile, a VP nod would be a strong possibility.  If, on the other hand, McCain cannot secure solid victories in any of the three early primaries, the big multi-primary day will be very interesting indeed, especially if social conservatives and religious Republican voters migrate from one of the three frontrunners to Sam Brownback or Mike Huckabee.