House bailout vote: Deal derailed by close races back home?

The electoral projections site FiveThirtyEight.com offers the most interesting analysis we’ve seen of the bailout bill’s defeat. The defectors on both sides of the aisle tended to be facing tough re-election races back home:

Among 38 incumbent congressmen in races rated as “toss-up” or “lean” by Swing State Project, just 8 voted for the bailout as opposed to 30 against: a batting average of .211. By comparison, the vote among congressmen who don’t have as much to worry about was essentially even: 197 for, 198 against.

An interesting footnote: Of the 26 congressional reps who are not running for re-election, only two bucked their party leadership and voted against the bill. Retiring Minnesota Rep. Jim Ramstad was one of those two.