Quinnipiac University’s new Swing States Poll, released this morning, shows sharp gains for Barack Obama in three vote-rich swing states, prompting a top Quinnipiac figure to comment that “John McCain has his work cut out for him.” Said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute: “It is difficult to find a modern competitive presidential race that has swung so dramatically, so quickly and so sharply this late in the campaign. In the last 20 days, Sen. Barack Obama has gone from seven points down to eight points up in Florida, while widening his leads to eight points in Ohio and 15 points in Pennsylvania.”
The survey shows big gains for Obama in three key swing states:
Florida: Obama 51%, McCain 43%
Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 39%
Factors, according to Brown, include Obama’s performance in the debate (he “clearly won”), opinions of Sarah Palin have “gone south,” and McCain’s poor handling of the financial crisis.
“Roughly a third of voters, and almost as large a share of the key independent vote, say McCain did more harm than good in trying to resolve the financial crisis,” Brown said. “[A]nd the share of voters who see the economy as the top issue has risen from roughly half to six in ten.”













2 Comments »
Comment posted October 1, 2008 @ 12:18 pm
Weird — Obama seems to have made bigger gains in swing states than in national polls.
And the thing about Obama winning the first debate that strikes me as odd is that while the polls show he won, and conservatives predictably gave their spin that McCain won, the liberal side didn’t say Obama won. For example, the commentators on Air America covering the debate thought it was a draw and maybe that McCain won, and that seemed the general opinion around the blogosphere. I think it was the expectations game. Liberals knew Obama was a substantive person who would come across well, but we weren’t so sure about McCain, so he beat our expectations. Much of the audience however hadn’t seen Obama before and just knew him as a flighty celebrity who didn’t know much, so he came across as more presidential than expected, whereas McCain was expected to be expert, so a draw helped Obama.
A bit of a warning regarding downplaying Palin’s likely debate performance. How bad can she be? She had to debate when she ran for governor, so she can’t be completely hopeless. We don’t want a situation where she can win if she just manages not to run off stage before it’s over.
Comment posted October 1, 2008 @ 12:57 pm
I should’ve added: Pollster, which averages the last five polls, has Obama ahead of McCain by 5.3% nationally (49.3-44). One month ago, McCain briefly took the lead, but since then Obama’s trended upward and McCain’s sunk.
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php
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