DFLer Ashwin Madia holds a five-point lead over Republican state Rep. Erik Paulsen in Minnesota’s 3rd Congressional District race, according to results of a Sept. 29-30 poll of 400 likely voters that was released Monday by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC).

It’s a sizable swing from Paulsen’s three-point lead in an independent poll of 636 likely voters that SurveyUSA conducted for Roll Call magazine Aug. 26-28.  But as in that survey (and a March poll also showing a three-point spread), the difference in Monday’s results between the leading candidates — Madia with 44 percent to Paulsen’s 39 — is within the poll’s 4.9 percent margin of error. Also making a dent in the survey of 400 likely 3rd District voters are those who favor Independence Party candidate David DIllon (9 percent) and who remain undecided (8 percent).

Bennett Petts & Normington, a national polling firm, conducted the poll for the DCCC. In April, the DCCC put Madia/Paulsen on its “red to blue” list of races it would target nationally, and DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen visited Minnesota the following month on Madia’s behalf. DCCC mailings and TV ads attacking Paulsen have drawn protest from the Republican and Independence candidates as well as independent observers as being wildly off base. Madia himself has said he condemns the DCCC ads to the extent that they are inaccurate. The DCCC refused to release more information about its poll to the Minnesota Independent.

Fewer ads helping Paulsen?

Late word from Tom Scheck at MPR’s Polinaut blog is that the DCCC’s counterpart, the National Republican Congressional Committee, has pulled ad buys to help Paulsen — at least at WCCO-TV, where mid-month reservations for ads to aid U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann still stand. The NRCC had held time for 66 ads in the 3rd District race to run on WCCO Oct. 14–20, but no longer. (Third district ads after Oct. 20 remain in place.)

Whether the pattern holds at three other local stations isn’t known yet, but as mnblue observes, less NRCC investment in the 3rd District would comport with Paulsen’s comment on Esme Murphy’s Sunday morning WCCO-TV news show that his side would be outspent four to one — “easily.”

Business comes around

The Madia campaign had a roundtable event for small-business owners scheduled this afternoon and a Tuesday morning plant tour with visiting U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., who serves as Democratic Caucus chair in the U.S. House of Representatives — this coming on the heels of visits over the past few days from Sen. Ross Feingold (D-Wis.) and U.S. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.).

The Madia activity also comes on the heels of Paulsen ads and Republican assertions that Madia’s tax policy would harm small business. Three business groups endorsed Paulsen at a news conference Friday (video), and another local business group canceled a candidate debate that was to have taken place Monday morning due to slow ticket sales.

Pistol-packers and Pakistani-Americans weigh in

Around the time of the DCCC poll, Madia was getting some other good news: the Maryland-based Pakistani American Public Affairs Committee (PIKPAC) gave him its endorsement. PIKPAC encouraged Pakistani-Americans in the 3rd District to get out the vote and contribute to Madia’s campaign, but with voters of South Asian background in short supply in the West Metro congressional district, PIKPAC’s Web page for donating to Madia may have the greater impact. According to SAJA Forum, Madia would be only the third person of South Asian descent to be elected to congress — after Dalip Singh Saund of California (who served from 1957–63) and Bobby Jindal (2005-07), now governor of Louisiana.

Meanwhile, Paulsen bagged the endorsement of the National Rifle Association on Monday, earning an A grade (”solidly pro-gun candidate”). Madia, despite having seemingly made strong statements in support of Second Amendment rights, must console himself that his NRA grade is a D (”anti-gun candidate who has … made strong statements in opposition to Second Amendment rights”).