Thomas Schaller writes at The American Prospect about the possibility that an oft-hyped Democratic electoral majority could at last be taking shape.

With Barack Obama as their presidential candidate and Howard Dean as party chief, and with widespread revulsion toward the Republican Party, many Democrats believe all the forces are finally in place to unleash this long-awaited majority. If it happens, and if the majority holds through subsequent congressional and presidential elections, it will represent a historic transformation comparable to the moment when Franklin D. Roosevelt at last unleashed the potential majority made up of farmers, city-dwellers, and first- and second-generation immigrants to end the Republican hegemony that had prevailed since 1896.

Tom Schaller

Tom Schaller

As Schaller explains, the elements for such a coalition look much more secure on paper than in practice, for the simple reason that electoral majorities are mobilized by “[t]ransformative politicians and entrepreneurial party leaders” rather than favorable demographic trends. The good news, Schaller contends, is that the Bush victories in 2000 and 2004 depended on the recruitment of traditional Republican cohorts — white voters, men, social conservatives, and rural dwellers — whose significance to the overall electorate is diminishing. In that sense it’s at least mildly comforting to realize that in addition to nearly everything else he’s touched, George W. Bush has helped wreck the future of his own party.

For Democrats, however, long-term fortunes in the emerging political climate will be shaped by how well the party maintains and expands on its strong record of success with women; by the degree to which young voters remain with the party as they age; by its ability to match its traditional support among Hispanic voters; and by the future of social conservative movement, whose electoral significance may on the wane.

The whole piece is certainly worth a look.