Unconventional wisdom: Barkley cuts into Coleman’s support

Back when Jesse Ventura was flirting with a U.S. Senate run, the conventional wisdom among the pundit class was that his presence on the ballot would all but lock up the election for Norm Coleman. I recall driving down to Rochester for the state Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party convention back in June and listening to Midday on Minnesota Public Radio. Both Democratic analyst Todd Rapp and Republican pundit Tom Horner were in agreement that a Ventura candidacy would be a boon for the incumbent.

“If Ventura got in this race, I think Coleman should send him a large holiday gift because I think he would be almost ensuring Coleman’s election,” Rapp said at the time. Horner echoed that sentiment: “I think it may just end up confusing things and increasing the chances that Sen. Coleman gets elected.” (You can listed to the program here.)

Four months on, with Ventura presumably back in Mexico chasing waves, a viable third-party candidate has emerged in Dean Barkley. The Independence Party challenger has been polling near 20 percent and is poised to have a major impact on the Senate race — despite having almost no money in what’s expected to be the most expensive campaign in Minnesota history.

But Barkley shouldn’t be expecting any gift baskets from Coleman between now and election day. That’s because the conventional wisdom — i.e. a strong third-party candidate translates into six more years for Norm in Washington — doesn’t seem to be panning out. In fact it’s becoming clear that the emergence of Barkley as a factor in the race is disproportionately hurting the incumbent.

Let’s take a look at the poll numbers. There have been six polls taken since the beginning of August that included Barkley as a choice. Here’s the average spread in those surveys: Coleman, 41.2; Franken, 40.2; Barkley, 12.5. Now consider the spread in the last six polls that included just the Democrat and Republican candidates: Coleman, 49.2; Franken, 42.2.

In other words, Coleman’s lead shrinks from a robust seven points to a statistically insignificant one point when Barkley is included in the equation. Looked at another way, the Independence Party candidate saps an average of eight points away from Coleman, compared to just two points from Franken.

Granted, this isn’t a statistically sound analysis. We’re dealing with a whole slew of different polls that employ different methodologies and sample surveys. But there’s sufficient data to draw a pretty strong conclusion: Contrary to all expectation, the emergence of Barkley as a formidable candidate is deeply endangering Coleman’s re-election prospects.