The Schultz Report: Hard to say whether ‘anti-Americans’ dustup could beat Bachmann in conservative 6th

David Schultz, who’s been in Europe on a speaking tour about the US elections, is back with us again for a new installment of the Schultz Report. In this edition, we talk about the recent tightening in some of the national presidential polls, the Minnesota Senate race between Norm Coleman, Al Franken, and Dean Barkley, and — of course — the controversy engendered by Rep. Michele Bachmann’s rant about Barack Obama and other “anti-Americans” last Friday.

On the latter count, Schultz isn’t convinced that the impact in Bachmann’s own congressional district — which is generally thought to be the most conservative in Minnesota — will be that great. But in a year when the stars seem to be aligning against GOP candidates, he says, it’s one more headache that Bachmann and the GOP did not need.

“Up until this week,” he notes, “nobody thought this was a seat that was in danger. Bachmann had vastly outraised her opponent, and she was able to get the support of the National Republican {Congressional] Committee. It looked pretty solid for her, but there seems to be a meltdown going on here.

“But if it’s not affecting her within the district in terms of popularity, it’s clearly affecting donors around the country. This is the Michele Bachmann that has been consistent for years, back to the state Legislature — picking on gays, picking on lesbians, picking on immigrants — basically, I would argue, borderline racist if not racist comments. Hewing to a real right-wing evangelical agenda. It may just simply be that this year, with the Democrats having what looks like an opportunity to raise money and knock off people who had looked safe, suddenly her seat is opening up as a seat the Democrats may be able to win.

“Polling data suggests — the Democrats have their own polls suggesting the race is dead-even. I doubt it’s dead-even, but her own polls suggest that she has only about 45 percent of the vote. For her to be under 50 percent two weeks out as an incumbent, with the advantages she’s had — she looks vulnerable. I’m still not persuaded she can lose yet at this point, but clearly the Republicans are going to have to put money into this seat in ways they hadn’t thought about before. And every dollar that goes into her seat is a dollar less that goes into some other vulnerable Republican seat around the country. This is just making the Republicans’ life even more complicated.”

Listen: David Schultz on Bachmann’s troubles, recent prez polls, and the US Senate race (13:16)

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Schultz on the national presidential polls:

“The most important part of the race is the swing states. It’s all about the 270 electoral votes you need to win. If we look at those numbers, the most conservative polling across the United States has Barack Obama with 240-260 electoral votes that are pretty certain for him. In all the critical swing states — the Ohios, Pennsylvanias, Floridas — he seems to have fairly good leads. And in states the Democrats have not won since 1964, like Virginia, he’s now opened up a pretty significant lead.

“So while the popular vote may be tightening — that’s debatable — he still holds fairly strong leads in swing states. And it’s come out in recent days that he’s been able to outspend John McCain on advertising in key states by a ratio of about 4-1.

“We should also look at John McCain’s behavior at this point. With two weeks to go, where’s he spending his time? He’s campaigning in states such as Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina. The latter two are significant — states that should be certainties for the Republicans, but he’s having to defend those states. Right now, it looks dramatically like McCain is on the defensive and trying to hold his own in states that were certain for Bush previously.”