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The Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza places Minnesota’s two hottest congressional contests back to back in his list of the 26th–50th U.S. House seats most likely to swap parties — a category consisting of 24 seats currently occupied by Republicans and exactly one held by a Democrat. The Top 25 he released last week had only seven Democratic seats that might switch.
That was the list on which Minnesota’s 3rd District race to replace U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad used to appear, but now it’s at No. 29, one notch behind that upstart competitive contest next door in the 6th District made famous by U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s funny comments and DFL challenger Elwyn “Cash Magnet” Tinklenberg’s funny name. The relevant quote, with links, after the jump.
29. Minnesota’s 3rd district (R): Democrat Ashwin Madia appears to have edged ahead of state Sen. Erik Paulsen (R) in this race in the suburbs of the Twin Cities. In a neutral year, Paulsen would likely win. But Madia’s grassroots campaign, his service in Iraq and the strong year shaping up for Democrats in the state make him a slight favorite.
28. Minnesota’s 6th district (R): Note to vulnerable incumbents: Don’t go on national TV two weeks before an election. Just don’t do it.
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3 Comments »
Comment posted October 25, 2008 @ 2:35 am
Vulnerable incumbent? Considering how Michele’s been acting, I would classify her more as a vulnerable adult than anything else. What next, is she gonna show up on the teevee with a backwards letter scratched on her face and a painted-on black eye?
Comment posted October 25, 2008 @ 9:50 am
Did Madia’s race in MN-CD03 get bumped out of the top 25 because it’s tightening or did more likely races elsewhere bump him down? I’m not familiar with how Cillizza’s approach works.
Comment posted October 26, 2008 @ 1:32 pm
Speaker Pelosi said that 250 (up from 235) is a good target number but her limitation is money. The Dems have more races that they could compete in, but are limited as to where they can afford to spend monies. No doubt, Steve Sarvi (in MN-02 versus john Kline) is feeling this problem.
Personally, looking at the lists (all 50), I don’t see the pick-up. The Presidential race may have unintended consequences … especially, if the media calls the election while the polls are still open out west (although with early voting in Nevada, those seats could still be in play.) The reason why some of the eastern states are listed as most competitive is the increase Democrat supporters, but if they don’t show up, there’s no change. Notice the number of Virginia seats in play … all the way down to #50 Virgil Goode which Minnesotans may remember for his Koran-attack on Keith Ellison.
What is missing is what the impact of the change might be. IF Madia replaces Ramstad who voted with Dems on many issues, that is less of an impact than if Sarvi replaces Kline … hence, the Dems need to funnel money to Sarvi. Kline’s low-profile is keeping him competitive.
The Madia race probably dropped down, because it is not tighening (becoming more likely that Madia will win especially as the RNCC has to spend money to defend incumbents) and other races are
more competitive.
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