Comments on: The Fix: Cillizza handicaps Minnesota’s 3rd and 6th CD races http://minnesotaindependent.com/14652/the-fix-cillizza-handicaps-minnesotas-3rd-and-6th-cd-races News. Politics. Media. Wed, 30 Nov 2011 23:48:28 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1 By: Minnesota Central http://minnesotaindependent.com/14652/the-fix-cillizza-handicaps-minnesotas-3rd-and-6th-cd-races/comment-page-1#comment-15946 Minnesota Central Sun, 26 Oct 2008 18:32:39 +0000 http://minnesotaindependent.com/?p=14652#comment-15946 Speaker Pelosi said that 250 (up from 235) is a good target number but her limitation is money. The Dems have more races that they could compete in, but are limited as to where they can afford to spend monies. No doubt, Steve Sarvi (in MN-02 versus john Kline) is feeling this problem. Personally, looking at the lists (all 50), I don’t see the pick-up. The Presidential race may have unintended consequences … especially, if the media calls the election while the polls are still open out west (although with early voting in Nevada, those seats could still be in play.) The reason why some of the eastern states are listed as most competitive is the increase Democrat supporters, but if they don’t show up, there’s no change. Notice the number of Virginia seats in play … all the way down to #50 Virgil Goode which Minnesotans may remember for his Koran-attack on Keith Ellison. What is missing is what the impact of the change might be. IF Madia replaces Ramstad who voted with Dems on many issues, that is less of an impact than if Sarvi replaces Kline … hence, the Dems need to funnel money to Sarvi. Kline’s low-profile is keeping him competitive. The Madia race probably dropped down, because it is not tighening (becoming more likely that Madia will win especially as the RNCC has to spend money to defend incumbents) and other races are more competitive. Speaker Pelosi said that 250 (up from 235) is a good target number but her limitation is money. The Dems have more races that they could compete in, but are limited as to where they can afford to spend monies. No doubt, Steve Sarvi (in MN-02 versus john Kline) is feeling this problem.

Personally, looking at the lists (all 50), I don’t see the pick-up. The Presidential race may have unintended consequences … especially, if the media calls the election while the polls are still open out west (although with early voting in Nevada, those seats could still be in play.) The reason why some of the eastern states are listed as most competitive is the increase Democrat supporters, but if they don’t show up, there’s no change. Notice the number of Virginia seats in play … all the way down to #50 Virgil Goode which Minnesotans may remember for his Koran-attack on Keith Ellison.

What is missing is what the impact of the change might be. IF Madia replaces Ramstad who voted with Dems on many issues, that is less of an impact than if Sarvi replaces Kline … hence, the Dems need to funnel money to Sarvi. Kline’s low-profile is keeping him competitive.
The Madia race probably dropped down, because it is not tighening (becoming more likely that Madia will win especially as the RNCC has to spend money to defend incumbents) and other races are
more competitive.

]]> By: PNRead http://minnesotaindependent.com/14652/the-fix-cillizza-handicaps-minnesotas-3rd-and-6th-cd-races/comment-page-1#comment-15867 PNRead Sat, 25 Oct 2008 14:50:17 +0000 http://minnesotaindependent.com/?p=14652#comment-15867 Did Madia's race in MN-CD03 get bumped out of the top 25 because it's tightening or did more likely races elsewhere bump him down? I'm not familiar with how Cillizza's approach works. Did Madia’s race in MN-CD03 get bumped out of the top 25 because it’s tightening or did more likely races elsewhere bump him down? I’m not familiar with how Cillizza’s approach works.

]]> By: andy http://minnesotaindependent.com/14652/the-fix-cillizza-handicaps-minnesotas-3rd-and-6th-cd-races/comment-page-1#comment-15842 andy Sat, 25 Oct 2008 07:35:25 +0000 http://minnesotaindependent.com/?p=14652#comment-15842 Vulnerable incumbent? Considering how Michele's been acting, I would classify her more as a vulnerable adult than anything else. What next, is she gonna show up on the teevee with a backwards letter scratched on her face and a painted-on black eye? Vulnerable incumbent? Considering how Michele’s been acting, I would classify her more as a vulnerable adult than anything else. What next, is she gonna show up on the teevee with a backwards letter scratched on her face and a painted-on black eye?

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