The race for the state House: Democrats who face re-election battles in red districts

Two years ago Paul Gardner scored arguably the most surprising upset of the election season. Running for the second time against eight-term anti-tax advocate Phil Krinkie (known as “Dr. No”), the Democrat eked out a 51-vote victory. “Phil had been there a long time,” says Gardner (pictured above). “I think he finally just pushed people to the edge by being very inflexible.”

Gardner’s victory was particularly noteworthy because of the electoral make-up of the suburban district, which includes Shoreview and Lino Lakes. In 2006 Gov. Tim Pawlenty carried the area by 14 points, while two years earlier President Bush achieved a 53-46 percent victory.

But he was hardly alone in winning a GOP-friendly district. Democrats picked up 19 state House seats in 2006, many of them in tight races in suburban districts that skew Republican. While this electoral success has set the table for the DFL to possibly gain a veto-proof majority in the House by picking up five more seats, it also means that many first-term legislators are facing tough re-election contests.

There are 12 House districts currently represented by a Democrat that voted for both Pawlenty and Bush in the last two election cycles. A recent report by the Humphrey Institute highlighted nine of these races, including Gardner’s, that could prove fertile ground for the GOP this election cycle. “Overall, the DFL will have its hands full and may well lose some seats that it currently controls,” note the report’s authors, Lawrence Jacobs and Eric Ostermeier.

Gardner’s opponent this time around is John Kappler, a former Navy officer and businessman. He overcame a primary battle with former state Sen. Mady Reiter to run as the GOP candidate. (Kappler refused to comment for this story.)

Despite the difficult electoral terrain, Gardner expresses optimism about his prospects. “I am feeling confident, but not overconfident,” he says. “We’re doing everything right that we did in 2006. The prevailing national wind is at our backs. And my opponent doesn’t have the name recognition that Phil Krinkie did.”

Here’s a look at the eight other races that the Humphrey Institute report tapped as potential GOP pick-ups.

House District 12B: Rep. Al Doty (DFL) v. Mike LeMieur (GOP). This should be one of the most difficult seats for the Democrats to retain. The district went for Pawlenty by 11 points in 2006 and backed Bush two years earlier by a 17-point margin. Doty (pictured) initially ran in 2004 as an independent, garnering just 12.4 percent of the vote. But after local DFL’ers successfully recruited him to join the party two years later, he knocked off incumbent Greg Blaine, taking 52 percent of the vote. LeMieur is a Little Falls City Council member who has criticized Doty for voting in favor of the gas-tax hike. Abortion is also a hot-button issue, despite the fact that both candidates are strongly pro-life. Doty received a 100-percent ranking from Minnesota Citizens Concerned for Life, but several letters published in the Morrison County Record have questioned his anti-abortion bona fides. “They’re knocking each other over the head to prove that they’re more pro life than the other one,” says Yvonne Leiser, chair of the Democratic party in Senate District 12.

House District 12A: Rep. John Ward (DFL) v. David Allan Pundt (GOP). In 2006 Ward knocked off incumbent Paul Gazelka by a fairly comfortable 55-45 percent margin. Centered around Brainerd, the district skews slightly less Republican than 12B to its south. Bush carried it by 13 points in 2004, while Pawlenty won the area by less than six points two years later. Ward is a pro-life Democrat and has been a teacher for 34 years. Pundt (pictured) is a Vietnam veteran and the former news director at radio station KLKS (FM-104.3). His web site emphasizes red-meat social issues. “I believe that life is sacred from conception to natural death and I believe that there’s nothing ambiguous in the 2nd Amendment,” he writes. Few political observes believe Ward is in too much danger. “I would be shocked if John wasn’t re-elected,” says Marcia Ferris, chair of the Crow Wing County DFL.

House District 56B: Rep. Marsha Swails (DFL) v. Jan Bohlsen (GOP). In theory this should be a close race. Two years ago Swails (pictured) knocked off incumbent Karen Klinzing by less than 500 votes in this district encompassing Woodbury. That same year, however, Pawlenty carried the area by a whopping 17 points. Not surprisingly the GOP, along with interest groups such as the Freedom Club PAC, have their sights set on the district. Some residents have received near-daily mailings over the last two weeks. “I am definitely one of their top targets,” says Swails, an English teacher. “I’m a a moderate candidate and they make me sounds like the biggest liberal since I don’t know who. They really have distorted my votes and how I have represented this community.” Fortunately for Swails her opponent hasn’t proven particularly formidable. Bohlsen, an administrator at Stonewood Bible Church, stammered her way through a recent debate, clearly not up to speed on the issues. “I feel like I embarrassed myself royally,” she announced at the end of the forum.

House District 56A: Rep. Julie Bunn (DFL) v. Kathy Lohmer (GOP). Bunn is another of the female Democrats who two years ago won tight races in suburban districts that lean GOP. The former Macalester College economics professor knocked off incumbent Mike Charron by just over 700 votes. In 2006 Pawlenty won the area by more than 14 points, but two years earlier Bush carried it by only five points. Politics in Minnesota characterizes the district, which includes Lake Elmo and parts of Stillwater, as historically Republican, but “trending to competitive.” Lohmer (pictured) is another candidate that comes from the staunchly social-conservative wing of the GOP. She is a veteran antiabortion activist and founder of a home-school cooperative.

House District 37A: Rep. Shelley Madore (DFL) v. Tara Mack (GOP). In 2004 Madore (pictured) narrowly lost to Lloyd Cybart. Two years later she avenged that defeat, besting the incumbent by 195 votes. The Apple Valley district is staunchly pro-GOP. Bush carried it by eight points in 2004 and Pawlenty won it by 17 two years later. Her opponent is Tara Mack, a legislative aid at the Capitol. I wrote about this race previously here.

House District 29B: Kim Norton (DFL) v. Jason Johnson (GOP). The Rochester area has historically been reliable territory for the GOP, but in recent elections Democrats have been making inroads. Norton first ran in 2004, losing to incumbent Fran Bradley by roughly 300 votes. Two years later, with the seat now open, she won by just 99 votes. Bush carried the area by just four points in 2004, but Pawlently won it by 15 points two years later. Norton is being challenged by first-time candidate Jason Johnson, a 34-year-old technology contractor who was partly motivated to run by the state’s looming deficit. “It’s part of the reason that I got excited about running, because finally we’re not going to have a choice but to cut spending,” Johnson told the Rochester Post-Bulletin recently. “We’re going to have to make priorities.”

House District 17B: Rep. Jeremy Kalin (DFL) v. Don Taylor (GOP). This should be one of the closest races in the state. Kalin (pictured) was handily beaten by Pete Nelson in 2004, but came back to oust the incumbent two years later by roughly 200 votes. The district, which includes Lindstrom and Rush City, skews heavily GOP. Pawlenty won it by 12 points in 2006 and Bush carried it by an almost identical margin two years earlier. Politics in Minnesota describes the district as “socially conservative but still maintains Scandinavian economic populism.” Kalin’s opponent owns a remodeling business and is the mayor of Chisago City. Taylor beat out two other contenders for the GOP endorsement in April.

House District 51A: Tim Sanders (GOP) v. Shawn Hamilton (DFL). This is an open seat being vacated first-term Democrat Scott Kranz. The Blaine district has a slight GOP bias, supporting Pawlenty by eight points in 2006 and Bush by a similar margin two years earlier. Hamilton is an electrical worker; Sanders (pictured) works for Fireman’s Fund Insurance Company. This looks to be one of the nastier races in the state. Mailings have attacked Hamilton for a minor marijuana offense and for mistakenly driving off from a gas station without paying. There is also an Independence Party candidate running in this district, Daniel Sanders.