Survey USA: Obama by just 3 in Minnesota?

By Paul Demko
Monday, November 03, 2008 at 8:43 am

Barack Obama holds a 49-46 lead over John McCain in Minnesota, according to a new poll conducted by SurveyUSA. That’s within the survey’s 3.9 percent margin of error. No other poll released in recent weeks has shown the presidential contest to be that tight in Minnesota. In fact 7 of the last 10 surveys in the state have shown the Democrat with a double-digit lead.

Poll guru Nate Silver, of The Plank and FiveThirtyEight renown, discounts the SurveyUSA poll as an outlier:

–> Don’t worry too much about that SurveyUSA result in Minnesota, which shows Obama just 3 points ahead. SurveyUSA’s polling in Minnesota has been very, very weird all year; they’ve never shown Obama with larger than a 6 point lead in their likely voter model, and had McCain ahead in the state as recently as October 1st. SurveyUSA does not have a Republican lean in general, but in Minnesota, it has consistently had a huge one.

There’s little doubt, regardless of who’s conducting the poll, that Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race is extremely tight. Polls have been bouncing back and forth in recent days between razor-thin leads for either Sen. Norm Coleman or Democrat Al Franken. The SurveyUSA study, commissioned by KSTP-TV (Channel 5), shows the incumbent with a 44-39 lead, just outside the margin of error. Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley trails with 16 percent of the vote.

Comments

16 Comments

John
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:07 am

Who did they poll ? Maybe the McCain Campaign Bus ? lol


wfcwfc
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:10 am

THAT ONE ’08


wfcwfc
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:11 am

this one is voting for THAT ONE ’08


Charles
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:13 am

My friend Joe the Registered Nurse, whose father fled the Sandinistas and who is, therefore, an ardent anti-communist conservative, has told me he voted for Obama. He said, “McCain represents the past. If the democrats don’t win decisively, we’ll know the election was rigged.”


herman
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:14 am

Yes John, go to MN right now! Don’t waste time in OH, FL, PA, VA, CO, AZ, etc


Rick
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:18 am

Perhaps Americans will think it through before casting that vote… a junior senator with a radical past and almost zero experience, who needs aids to spoon feed him answers… or a tried and true hero who is a true reformer, independent, and has the experience to lead from the first day in office. If America votes for Obama, it will at least be fun watching the jihadists slap him around, then perhaps the lefties will realize they hate all of Western Civilization and will not quit just because our leader has a little charm…


Carl
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:20 am

SurveyUSA is a tool of ABC Channel 5 locally which is owned by Hubbard Broadcasting a very conservative (Republican) station. The Hubbard family is one of the largest Republican donors. Their US Senate polling also has never had Franken ahead.


edwards
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:24 am

Who’s kidding whom? MN is going Blue and a horrible McCain campaign strategy is to blame… along with the choice of an unseasoned, unprepared VP. But ya gotta wonder whether Palin (SarahSixPack.com) is actually going to be the GOP’s standard bearer, or whether she’ll just be a footnote in history. Obama (ObamaAgain2012.com) is a shoo-in this go-round, and it’s very likely that he’ll effectively use the power of his incumbency in ’12 to win a second term. Question is: Will Palin’s star power within the GOP continue all the way into 2016? Isn’t it more likely that many brighter (!) GOP stars will emerge during the next 8 years?


Rebecca Robertson
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:27 am

An Obama presidency would certainly be in for a rough ride. Regardless of the polls, Americans don’t want an ultra-paternalistic government. Hillary was a Centrist and that is why she was popular. Bill was also a Centrist. He passed major Welfare Reform in 1996! These type of Dems have seen the light of day regarding Socialism and Paternalism. For all of Bush’s criticism by liberals, he has actually been more socialistic than his predecessors. So the labels don’t apply anymore. OBAMA IS MORE LIKE BUSH THAN MCCAIN. Obama will put government on steroids, will run up our debt, because he is an ultra-liberal democrat.Democrats are more inclined to take personal liberties than republicans. In this case the labels hold true because Obama will try to dictate your life more than McCain.


John
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:38 am

Real Clear Politics has Minnesota at 6.9 points for Obama, with a 3 point margin of error. It would be possible to conduct a poll with a 3 point spread. Hockey moms, moose hunters, doctors, nurses, and married couples making over $120,000 will definitely vote McCain-Palin.


Lisa
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:40 am

We really need a third party in this county. I don’t like either of them, they are just like every other politician. We need to vote out all who now sit in Washington. GO RON PAUL!


Obamablewit
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:42 am

He blew it. He’s lost over five points in Pennsylvania, Survey USA is, contrary to the quote above, a VERY accurate pollster-by Nate Silver’s OWN estimates of pollsters on his site-he has them as number 3 in his list of most reliable pollsters-so dismissing this is just wishful thinking and a refusal to acknowledge REALITY.

MN within MOE. VA is now a tossup per yesterday’s polls. Obama has lost nearly seven points in the last week in PA and hasn’t even GONE there and won’t BE there before tomorrow-another 2-3 points for McCain-we’re within MOE there as well. And Obama’s own internals showed 70% of undecideds breaking to McCain three to four weeks ago.

At this point, the trendlines show McCain will win take PA, VA and Minnesota tomorrow, and will hold on in NC, ND, MT, AZ, IN, GA and MO. And Florida? Nate Silver himself moved it to trending McCain yesterday. Look at history. It is always “close” and virtually always ends up red in Florida. A conservative southern state voting for two northern democrats? HELLO?

McCain will win with 271-279 EV’s.

Obama, like the last two democratic candidates, let himself get sucked into the “Florida/Ohio” game and dumped his own original strategy (PA and VA). His big mistake of the campaign. “Gee, I don’t need to win in GA or ND or AZ, but I’ll spend a bunch of money and time on that.”

This lack of any grasp of a WINNING strategy proves I should NOT have voted for him.. Now, even if he wins Ohio, Iowa, NM, CO and NV, he still LOSES the election.

Why are democrats so utterly incapable of giving up Florida? Obama had a lock until he basically quit campaigning in PA and pretty much trapped himself into the Ohio/Florida game.

If I could take back my Obama vote today I would!

SIgn me “Sick of Democratic losers in presidential campaigns”


Free Ads
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:44 am

War heroes should not be entitled to presidency. They have to earn it. Bill Gates and Steve Jobs were far less experienced than all the top IBM and HP executives but they beat them in shaping the future.

What America needs is an intelligent man who can ponder over issues and select the most optimum solutions.

McCain is unstable in his decision making because he thinks he is experienced and he knows every thing. Just watch him talking. He always says, ‘I know”, “I know”. Just because you are have spent 25 years in Senate, you don’t know every thing sir.

If Republicans are so fond of Mccain, why did not they elect him to run for presidency in 2000. They thought Bush is better than McCain. According to Republican Party’s logic, they are asking us to vote for a man who is worse than Bush. Go figure.


John
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 9:55 am

As the result of eight years “neo-conservative” administration, the word “liberal” is less scary than the word “conservative” now-a-days. Nobody is going to be scared by the term liberalism any more. That tactic had worked the last 8 years and brought Bush and his Billionaire friends to power. Now, it is time for the working people to look forward and for a better America. It is time for change and hope!!


Flash
Comment posted November 3, 2008 @ 11:47 am

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/03/mccain-draws-small-florida-crowd-on-race%E2%80%99s-final-day/

TAMPA, Florida (CNN) – Barack Obama may lead John McCain by just 2 points in the latest CNN Florida poll of polls, but the enthusiasm gap appears a bit wider.

John McCain’s first rally of the day, in Tampa outside Raymond James Stadium, only drew about 1,100 people. Local reporters noting that at almost the same spot just before the 2004 election, President Bush drew about 15,000 people. Two weeks ago, Obama drew an estimated 8,000.

Republican Gov. Crist, who had previously agreed to do interviews with CNN and various local affiliates, bolted right after the rally with no explanation.


Naplesgal
Comment posted November 5, 2008 @ 12:37 pm

Well now, I guess being a community leader TRUMPED everything!


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