Putting the “Bradley effect” to rest

Tom Bradley speaking at the 1988 Aids Walk Los Angeles.

Joe Mathews of Politico put the “Bradley effect” to rest yesterday even before Barack Obama’s victory. In a piece called It was guns, not race, that affected Bradley, Mathews writes: “Over the past few weeks, I examined polling and news stories from the 1982 race and talked with dozens of major players in the Bradley and Deukmejian campaigns.”

His conclusion? Blame Proposition 15: “The main problem was guns … Bradley had endorsed Proposition 15, a statewide ballot initiative that would have put a freeze on purchases of new guns. Bradley and Proposition 15 both had a lead in the polls when Bradley decided to back the initiative. But there was a huge backlash against Proposition 15 in inland, conservative California precincts. The resulting turnout was so overwhelming that it took down Bradley.”