Nate Silver, the fivethirtyeight.com political wunderkind whose prognosticating acumen landed him on the cover of today’s New York Times business section, breaks down the probabilities of who will survive the ongoing vote count in Minnesota’s U.S. Senate race this morning (hat tip x 3: Braublog). His conclusion:

If, over the long run, we expect Franken to win 51% of corrected ballots, his odds of winning the recount may be quite strong — in fact, he may be the prohibitive favorite depending on the number of recounted ballots.

UPDATE: Silver has already revisited this in a new post. His adjusted take on the situation: 

I hesitate to say this, but I think the evidence points on balance toward Franken being a slight favorite to win the recount.

UPDATE: In yet another installment, Silver says what we already knew: It’s a tie. 

 It is very, very close. 

 

A lot rides on the margin between Franken and Coleman staying small when votes are certified today, and on the belief, buttressed by exit polls, that under-counted ballots will break for Franken. Yet when he appeared Nov. 3 on MSNBC’s “Countdown with Keith Olbermann,” Silver didn’t put much stock in exit poll data:

Olbermann: Nate, when the exit polls leak out tomorrow … is there anything that you actually want to look at, anything that’s an actual valid indicator, or should you just throw them out as they come in?
Silver: No, totally throw them out. These things are not anything they’re cracked up to be. They’ve had a Democratic lean for years and years.

Silver may have been dissing exit polls’ utility in predicting election results, however, not in conducting after-the-fact demographic analysis.

In any case, it’s the kind of in-depth analysis Silver lavished only on select candidate preference polls during the heat of the campaign season. Now that it’s all over but the counting in a few places like Minnesota, the former baseball stats geek is apparently able and willing to turn his full mental powers on an individual non-presidential race to produce an at-length interpretation that leaves his readers’ heads spinning. “Swear to God, Nate, you’ve broken my brain with this one,” writes one. ”My goodness Nate — do you ever sleep? You need to get out more,” advises another. Adds someone named Bob: “Your sadistical analsis [sic] leaves me stunned.”