Comments on: Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight: Franken ‘may be prohibitive favorite’

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By: Eslight

Eslight — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 16:48:19 +0000

“51%???? Since Inept Al and Nasty Norm are at 42% now that would be quite a trick.”

————-
bull papel,

He predicted Al would get “51% of the “corrected ballots,” not 51% of the total votes cast. That means for every 100 ballots corrected, Al would get 51 and Norm would get 49 . . .that’s not unreasonable – every election in MN has a change in numbers between when the vote is cast and when the results are certified – we just never pay attention because it’s never this close. I believe Klobuchar picked up around 1,600 votes in the certification for the last Senate election, but again, because she won by so much, no one made anything of it.

By: Dan

Dan — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 20:50:26 +0000

Nate is very smart, still 50-50 for Franken though IMO, but not out of the game yet.
Still will be great to see Nasty Norm sent packing by Stuart Little .

By: No Way

No Way — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 19:14:31 +0000

Nate is questionable. He is counting on overvotes. Overvotes are rejected by the machine
at the time of voting in the precinct most people will redo the ballot. So the only overvotes are absentee ballots. I do not know
the procedures for handling absentee ballots that are rejected by the machine, but it would seem
wrong to ignore an entire ballot when someone overvoted one race. I think overvotes are not
a big source of correctable votes , especially in MN.

The other problem not mentioned is the old ES&S Mark 100 and 115 counties, the ones that had
the older machines before Kiffy got them for $39 million for the rest of the state.
Duluth and Mpls are in those counties
and the errors will be higher there as well as the Franken support. St Paul and some suburbs
have old Diebold scanners, old machines are known to have more errors, also mostly Franken
territory.

The other factor is if a technician “fix” occurred one way or the other in an attempt to
fix the election in one or several of the ES&S counties whose contracts were set up by
Kiffmeyer. The hand count should show if this happened in any county for any candidate in
the Senate election.

By: bull papal

bull papal — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 18:55:38 +0000

51%???? Since Inept Al and Nasty Norm are at 42% now that would be quite a trick.

This guy has quite a crystal ball, maybe the old ES&S Mark 100s have not been cleaned
enough in Henn Co., that could account for that 9% swing? I think not.