Denny Hecker undoubtedly could’ve made this call awhile back. But the National Bureau of Economic Research has officially declared that the United States is in the midst of a recession. In fact, the group’s Business Cycle Dating Committee determined that the recession actually began in December 2007. While the commonly used definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, this influential group of economists relies on a more complex series of data points to arrive at its determinations. The number of people employed in the U.S., for instance, peaked last December and has declined every month since.

In other grim economic news: manufacturing contracted at the sharpest rate in 26 years las month, chicken processor Pilgrim’s Pride has filed for bankruptcy, and the Dow is currently off more than 500 680 points. Happy holiday shopping season!