One scenario in the Minnesota Senate recount has the U.S. Senate ordering a new election to help senators decide whether to seat Democrat Al Franken or Republican incumbent Norm Coleman. Another scenario for a new election leaves the decision to voters late next year after the vacancy is temporarily filled by an appointee of Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

But a rerun of the Nov. 4 election, if held today, wouldn’t be any more conclusive than the original was, according to a new poll that Survey USA conducted for KSTP-TV. If Minnesotans could vote again, the results would be just about the same as on Election Day, with Coleman at 42 percent and Franken at 41.

There’s apparently no “give” yet among supporters of either candidate — or indeed, among those who backed the third-place finisher, Independence Party candidate Dean Barkley. Given the chance in the hypothetical do-over to tip the historically close election to either Franken or Coleman, 15 percent of voters would stick by Barkley, who briefly held the same Senate seat in 2002 as Gov. Jesse Ventura’s appointee after Paul Wellstone’s death.

Responses to other questions that KSTP reported suggest that Minnesotans find the recount process fair, approve of Secretary of State Mark Ritchie’s handling of it, don’t want the loser to sue, and do want rejected absentee ballots reviewed.

Here are the results of the KSTP-TV/Survey USA survey questions presented by KSTP on Dec. 7:

Do you think Minnesota’s U.S. Senate recount process has been fair to both candidates? Unfair to Norm Coleman? Or Unfair to Al Franken?
Fair to both candidates: 58 percent
Unfair to Coleman: 20 percent
Unfair to Franken: 13 percent
Not sure: 9 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie has done with the recount?
Approve: 61 percent
Disapprove: 26 percent
Not sure: 13 percent

Do you think the losing candidate should file a legal challenge in court if they think the process was unfair?
Yes: 40 percent
No: 55 percent
Not sure: 4 percent

Do you think absentee ballots that were previously rejected should be reviewed?
Yes: 58 percent
No: 39 percent
Not sure: 4 percent

If another election for U.S. Senate was held again today who would you vote for? Dean Barkley? Norm Coleman? Or Al Franken?
Coleman: 41 percent
Franken: 40 percent
Barkley: 15 percent

In the latest official recount tally of results from the Nov. 4 election (not including 6,655 ballots that either the Franken or Coleman campaigns have challenged), Franken and Coleman are essentially tied at 41 percent, with 17 percent of the vote going to all others (including Barkley).

The poll’s sampling margin of error is ±4.2 percent. It was conducted on Dec. 4, just before the recount finished (most of) its work and just as news was breaking about 133 ballots being lost in Minneapolis. The Survey USA crosstabs include three questions KSTP didn’t include in its report:

Do you approve or disapprove of how the Coleman campaign has handled the recount process?
Approve: 51 percent
Disapprove: 40 percent
Not sure: 9 percent

Do you approve or disapprove of how the Franken campaign has handled the recount process?
Approve: 44 percent
Disapprove: 48 percent
Not sure: 7 percent

In light of the Senate recount process, do you now have more faith in Minnesota’s electoral system? Less faith? Or about the same amount?
More faith: 11 percent
Less faith: 32 percent
Same amount: 53 percent
Not sure: 4 percent

Survey USA’s crosstabs indicate that the results are based on the opinions of 556 registered Minnesota voters. The breakdowns by political party affiliation are surprising, given the sometime right-heavy pools Survey USA has been accused of using: 41 percent Democrat, 27 percent Republican, and 28 percent “Independent” (that’s small “i”-Independent, not necessarily affiliated with the Independence Party).

As Georgia’s U.S. Senate recent run-off experience showed, turnout for special election isn’t the same as for general elections. Did Survey USA target Minnesotans who would be likely to vote if indeed another election is held in this race? “We did not screen for likely voters at any point,” writes Ken Alper of Survey USA in response to an e-mail this morning from the Minnesota Independent.

Here is KSTP’s report: