Senate Pre-Primary Numbers: A Closer Look

By Matt Martin
Monday, September 04, 2006 at 9:13 pm

At the end of last week the fundraising for the pre-primary filing deadline started seeping out and we promised a more detailed look once all the info came out. Well, it’s out, so let’s dive in!

The first, and most obvious observation is that Amy Klobuchar has managed to out-raise Congressman Mark Kennedy for the second quarter in a row. Klobuchar scrapped together $980,000 with 5-6 weeks left in the 3rd Quarter while Kennedy only managed $825,000. In of itself, however, that’s not a huge gap. The real story is in the changing momentum of the campaigns. Take a look: Frnumbers

Early on in the race Kennedy was consistently outpacing Klobuchar in fundraising, but recently (probably in no small part due to the recent polling numbers) Klobuchar has consistently been matching or beating Kennedy.

It’s important to note that the most recent numbers are not for the whole of the 3rd quarter but merely the numbers reported due to the 2-weeks prior to the primary deadline in Minnesota. So, these numbers should be significantly larger at the end of the 3rd Quarter.

That being said, let’s look at cash-in-hand:

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Here’s where the real story is. Klobuchar hasn’t been able to break the cash on hand advantage Kennedy’s had since Bush came to town late last year and raised Kennedy $1 million (see the bump in Q4 2005; yeah, that was Bush). But she has been catching up these past few quarters. Additionally, Kennedy’s burn rate is surpassing Klobuchar’s (which means he’s spending more money) but the polls still aren’t reflecting that push.

Moreover, Klobuchar has been getting a much larger percentage of her contributions from individual Minnesotans than has Kennedy. Obviously this is important in how it reflects on each candidate’s base of support, but it is doubly important when it is considered that Klobuchar has yet to truly tap into the national fundraising sources that Kennedy has been squeezing.

Bottom line: Klobuchar is doing an amazing job of preserving a war-chest for the next two crucial months while Kennedy’s national GOP fundraising machine is slowly starting to sputter.