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Part of every presidential campaign is the constant effort to prove to the candidate’s base that the candidate can keep the opposition on the defensive and capture states that went the other way last time around.
To that end, Rudy Giuliani said this morning that he was the Republican to break a 35-year streak of Democratic success in delivering Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes — even to 1984 nominee Walter Mondale, who won Minnesota, Washington D.C., and … not much else.
Let’s say Giuliani somehow achieved a victory in Minnesota — after all, in May he was running ahead of Barack Obama by 6 points, behind Edwards by 8, and behind Clinton by 3 — a muddled picture at best. Would it matter?
According to polls in other states, maybe not.
A recent Quinnipiac poll indicates that Giuliani would lose a matchup in Ohio to any of the three Democratic frontrunners. SurveyUSA polled Iowa in May and found that Giuliani would lose badly to John Edwards (54-40 with 6% undecided), lose somewhat less decisively to Barack Obama (49-44, 7% undecided), and was essentially tied or slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton (45-48, 8% undecided).
Assuming that Giuliani won Minnesota, lost both Ohio and Iowa, and did not achieve any other changes from 2004’s results, the doomsday scenario would occur: a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College (assuming no one has any faithless electors).
The Republican nominee will need to get to 270 in 2008 — a 269-269 tie would throw the election into the House of Representatives, where a party-line vote would deliver the White House to the Democratic nominee. Of course, the above scenario doesn’t take Kentucky into account.
Kentucky?
Sure. In May, Giuliani was only slightly ahead of Clinton, slightly behind Edwards, and held a clear advantage over only Obama.
Kentucky — a state that delivered its eight electoral votes to President Bush in 2004 by a margin of twenty points.
If Giuliani and Team GOP have a single concern about states like Kentucky, stealing the North Star State will be the least of their worries.Related from Eric Black Ink:
One Reason Giuliani’s Abortion Stance Hasn’t Been Hurting Him Much
The Magic of Selective Perception: A Mitt Romney Example
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6 Comments »
Comment posted September 6, 2007 @ 8:15 pm
Nice Picture That’s a solid photo of Giuliani JB.
It looks strikingly similar to the one on the front of the Trib’s site.
Did you have the Trib’s permission to use their picture without citing them as the source?
Is the Trib providing commentary and artwork for this site now?
Comment posted September 6, 2007 @ 10:37 pm
… He links to the Strib in his piece, thereby alerting the Strib to the usage. If they want to send him a cease-and-desist, they sure can. Standard practice in the blogosphere. Although it’s a pretty small picture, possibly small enough to be considered a thumbnail, which anyone can use without permission under the fair use clause.
Comment posted September 7, 2007 @ 7:19 am
To be perfectly clear For some time now, I have used an anchor tag with a title attribute containing photo credit on images I get from sources other than myself or MinMon staff. Roll your mouse cursor over the image to see the attribution. And as Paul says, if the Strib wants to send us a C+D, they can.
But keep up the good work making sure we’re on the straight and narrow.
Comment posted September 6, 2007 @ 3:15 pm
Nice Picture That's a solid photo of Giuliani JB.
It looks strikingly similar to the one on the front of the Trib's site.
Did you have the Trib's permission to use their picture without citing them as the source?
Is the Trib providing commentary and artwork for this site now?
Comment posted September 6, 2007 @ 5:37 pm
… He links to the Strib in his piece, thereby alerting the Strib to the usage. If they want to send him a cease-and-desist, they sure can. Standard practice in the blogosphere. Although it's a pretty small picture, possibly small enough to be considered a thumbnail, which anyone can use without permission under the fair use clause.
Comment posted September 7, 2007 @ 2:19 am
To be perfectly clear For some time now, I have used an anchor tag with a title attribute containing photo credit on images I get from sources other than myself or MinMon staff. Roll your mouse cursor over the image to see the attribution. And as Paul says, if the Strib wants to send us a C+D, they can.
But keep up the good work making sure we're on the straight and narrow.
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