SurveyUSA: Coleman in Dead Heat with Challengers

In a poll conducted at the end of October, SurveyUSA has found incumbent Norm Coleman in a dead heat with his two leading DFL challengers.

Coleman matches up at 46-45 percent against Al Franken, and is even with attorney Mike Ciresi at 44-44 percent.

On its blog, SurveyUSA takes note of some of the poll’s interesting findings: 

* Coleman holds 89% of the GOP base against either opponent.
* Both Democrats hold 84% of the Democratic base against Coleman.
* Among independents, Coleman leads by 6 against Franken and by 4 against Ciresi.
* Among moderates, Franken leads by 5, Ciresi leads by 8.
* Franken runs 20 points better among women than among men. Ciresi runs 25 points better among women than among men.

The gender gap is certainly worth noting here, but the base numbers are notable here as well — there is still room for upward movement for the DFL challengers among their own base.  However, if these numbers are to bear out, the DFLers in the race will need to keep their base vote rallied and active — the poll’s crosstabs indicate that 33% of the poll’s population was DFL voters, and only 28% was Republican.  Those numbers fit conventional wisdom on the Minnesota electorate, but there is plenty of time before the election for them to shift. 

However, this is the third poll in the race from a single pollster with a single methodology, and the numbers for Coleman do not look good.  There is always a base on each side of an election, and thus a floor beyond which poll results are not likely to fall, but the trend in Coleman’s SurveyUSA numbers is a solidly downward one.