unisinkableIn a post (not a battleship) christened “The Unsinkable Michele Bachmann,” the University of Minnesota’s Smart Politics blog predicts the 6th District congresswoman will coast to re-election in 2010, if the 6th District sees only the slightest shift of political breezes that lately have been blowing Democrats’ way. And it doesn’t matter what she says, since she benefits from a ‘Ted Stevens Media Backlash Effect” that nullifies any “anti-Bachmann media blitz” after her frequent gaffes.

The hail of criticism that followed her accusations on MSNBC’s “Hardball” of anti-Americanism in Congress came to be seen by “some voters,” according to Smart Politics’ Eric Ostermeier,

… as an attack on the 6th District itself (and certainly on those residents who had voted her into office in 2006). Combine that with the fact that Bachmann’s comments on Hardball probably were not seen as that controversial to many 6th CD voters, and one has a backlash in the making. … Minnesotans in the the 6th District responded in kind by holding back the Democratic wave just enough to successfully defend Bachmann’s seat, and, perhaps, their own pride.

Ostermeier backs up his contention of a Democratic drift in the district with tables of election stats, leading to his conclusion that “Bachmann deserves some credit for extending her political half-life.” But discussion of the role of the Independence Party’s Bob Anderson, who in 2008 drew 10 percent of the votes in an election that saw Bachmann beat Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg by a margin of 3 percent, is nowhere to be found. Likewise for evidence to back up the “fact” that Minnesotans voted Bachmann back into office as an expression of pride. Nevertheless, Ostermeier has this bracing warning for those who would prefer a world where Bachmann doesn’t represent Minnesotans in Congress:

As such, despite the fact that many on the left go to bed at night praying Bachmann’s recent comments on KTLX regarding the country “running out of rich people” will be the comment that leads to her undoing, they are going to be sorely disappointed. Bachmann has shown she can not only dust herself off the ground, but she can so do immaculately, even in the face of a Democratic windstorm.

The occasion for Smart Politics’ analysis and musings is the inclusion of Minnesota’s 6th District yesterday in the Rothenberg Political Report’s first rating of the 2010 U.S. House races. Bachmann joins 3rd District U.S. Rep. Erik Paulsen among eight Republican incumbents whose chances at re-election the report finds favorable at this early date, among races that Ostermeier observes are the most “likely Democratic targets” nationally.

UPDATE: Bachmann liked the Smart Politics post so much, she pointed her “BachmannforMN6” Twitter followers to it with her first tweet on that account since November.