Huckabee Surges to New Heights in Iowa

A Newsweek poll out Friday afternoon had the GOP race among likely Iowa caucus goers:

• Mike Huckabee: 39 percent
• Mitt Romney: 17
• Fred Thompson: 10
• Rudy Giuliani: 9
• Ron Paul: 8
• John McCain: 6

If this is right, it’s mighty impressive. This poll had a large sample, was taken Wednesday and Thursday by the most tried and trusted methodology (human telephone interviews) and had a smal margin for error (three percent). Using the same methodology in late September, Romney led Huckabee by 25-6 percent.

The comment from Newsweek’s pollster, Larry Hugick of Princeton Survey Research Associates: “You rarely see anything like [Huckabee's surge].”

On the Dem side:
Newsweek/Princeton had Hillary Clinton with an insignificant 30-29 percent lead over Barack Obama among Democratic leaning registered Iowa voters. But among likely caucus goers it was:

• Obama: 35
• Clinton: 29
• John Edwards: 18.
• Bill Richardson: 9.

Obama’s lead borders on statistical significance and shows a continuation of a surge that polls have been picking up for a couple of weeks, but is nothing compared to the Huckabee tsunami.

By the way, most of the presidential poll results I’ve posted under crack for political junkies have been from Iowa. That because I assume all other numbers (national or other state numbers) will be affect when Iowa completes its first in the nation caucuses Jan. 3.

Another reminder: In Iowa caucuses, on a precinct-by-precinct basis, candidates who receive less than 15 percent on the first round are declared “non-viable” and their supporters are given a chance to align with their second choice, if that candidate is viable. So second choices could have a big impact on the final result.