Campaign Notebook: The CD3 Money Chase

The end of the year also marks the end of the final Federal Election Commission reporting period of 2007. The open seat in Minnesota’s Third congressional district has at least four serious contenders, three DFLers and one Republican, seeking their party’s nominations in earnest.

How are they doing money-wise? It’s anyone’s guess, really. The campaigns are understandably skittish about releasing numbers too early, outside their prescribed media strategies.  Here’s what we do know (going in alphabetical order):Terri Bonoff (DFL): The state senator from Minnetonka is expected to lead the way in fundraising through the end of the year. Rumors of a total between $400k and $500k are outlandish, but given a short quarter (with the holidays), it’s not out of the question for Bonoff to have raised between $150k and $200k in Q4. Both of Bonoff’s DFL rivals have indicated that they will likely not raise as much as Bonoff, so given her immediate Q3 success with so-called “low-hanging fruit” (easy dollars raised from friends, family and political allies), Bonoff-as-money-leader is a pretty safe bet right now.

Jim Hovland (DFL): Hovland’s interim campaign manager indicated early this past week that while Hovland wouldn’t equal Bonoff’s number, the campaign is very satisfied with its fundraising progress so far. Hovland does bring another aspect to the donor chase, bringing a network of moderate Republican supporters in the southwest metro into the fold. However, it remains to be seen whether he can translate his party switch into a corresponding switch in donor support for old-school Republicans with money to spare.

Ashwin Madia (DFL): Like Hovland, Madia’s campaign indicated to me last week that while they would likely not match Bonoff, they are happy with their progress. Madia’s campaign has touted their online fundraising total, quickly approaching $100k raised through the Democratic fundraising clearinghouse ActBlue. This sword cuts both ways, however — the other campaigns take online donations directly through their Web sites, while Madia’s campaign site simply links to his ActBlue page. The value of this move depends on your perspective: It lends itself to an open approach to modern campaigning, but it prevents the campaign from keeping those numbers private and also means they do not have immediate access to that money. Pros and cons everywhere.  Unfortunately, Madia’s campaign would not divulge any estimates on his traditional fundraising progress, so this is a wait-and-see.

Erik Paulsen (RPM): Does Paulsen even need to raise money? Yes and no. “Yes” in that he needs to demonstrate the capacity to raise sufficient funds to compete and make the National Republican Campaign Committee commit to defending the seat with independent expenditures, but “no” in that he faces no serious competition (yet) for the Republican nomination. In addition, he is Jim Ramstad’s political protege, having worked for the outgoing congressman before being elected to the Legislature, and there are plenty of ways for Ramstad to give Paulsen a financial assist later. Rumors that Paulsen has had trouble raising money so far could not be substantiated, so the timing of a personal endorsement from Ramstad will be interesting — too soon, and it looks like the Paulsen campaign needs a boost; too late, and he won’t be able to raise the funds to force a “competitive” label on this race for a cash-strapped NRCC.