AG Post-Mortem

There are lots of things I could say about the result of the Attorney General primary.  My trolls might be waiting for just those things.  Luckily, I’ve been awake for far too many hours not to have a carefully measured response to last night’s events.

I make no secret I’m personally disappointed in the result.  Steve Kelley would have been a great Governor, and he would have been a great Attorney General, and he deserves a hell of a lot better than he’s gotten in the last year.  But I also think, as I have noted here before, that Lori Swanson’s legal credentials are impeccable, and it’s clear that she’s taken the resources she’s been given and turned them into a successful campaign across the state.

But I don’t think Bill Luther cost Steve Kelley this election.  Contrary to what Eva would contend, I also don’t think the Stadium had much, if anything, to do with it.

I spoke to some folks close to the campaign this morning (who were awake – this was surprising) who agreed that the major mistake was underestimating the effect of slick lawn signs.  Convention activists are one thing – they’re educated about the issues and candidates, and by the time they cast a vote you can be pretty sure they know who you and your opponents are.  But primary voters, by and large, are a lot like general election voters – they are influenced by the first name they see on a lawn sign.  Not to vote for them immediately, but to seek more information on them.  In this case, that was Swanson, and it appears about 42% liked what they found.The Hatch factor also cannot be discounted here.  It’s no secret that a lot of Swanson’s logistical resources in this race came from Hatch, and a preliminary examination of the numbers seems to indicate that strong Hatch areas were also strong Swanson areas.  That wasn’t a secret going in, check out these links.  Anoka County was trouble for Kelley.  Dakota too.  Ramsey was no help at all, essentially leaving Swanson and Kelley tied at the end of the night in St. Paul and surrounding areas.  Washington was no good either, but truth be told, it probably would have been okay for Kelley if Hennepin, the biggest vote total in the state and Kelley’s home base, had come through heavily for him.  It did not.  An 8,000-vote advantage there was not enough to make up for significant losses in St. Louis County (the Duluth Superior’s endorsement did not matter, apparently), Itasca, and elsewhere in large-ish counties around the state.

As for the Stadium and its opponents…I really don’t think that played at all in this race.  Primary voters are influenced by lawn signs and first impressions, but they also don’t make decisions on the aggregate level based on single issues or personality traits – see Johnson, Dean and Koering, Paul.  These two legislators each saw significant primary challenges based on a perception of being out of touch with their districts, Johnson for his role in preventing a gay-hate amendment from seeing the light of day and Koering for being gay himself.  Each survived.  The Stadium simply isn’t as big a political issue as its opponents want it to be

But at the end of the day, the AG’s race itself was mostly clean, relatively fair, and unfortunately for those who don’t come out on top, is the way it sometimes goes in politics.  I’ll be doing more in-depth analysis of the statewide numbers at some point – but first, a work day, and then a nap.