State of the Union Live Blog

6:20 I will be live blogging tonight’s State of the Union address. The event begins at 8 p.m. Central Standard Time, live blogging will begin about a half hour earlier.

7:32 CNN, which is far more impressed with their political acumen than I am, is currently breaking down the geography of Florida in preparation for that exciting Republican primary tomorrow. For instance, did you know Tallahasse is in a conservative part of the state? For real! Gah. This is too early to start the election coverage.

Bush is also driving to Capitol Hill now, along with his whole family including his future son-in-law. CNN is chuckling about the irony of Bush giving his last SOTU the night before the Florida primary, when Florida put Bush over the top in 2000. Except, of course, Florida didn’t. The Supreme Court did.

7:35 Hillary Clinton is walking in with Joe Biden! What does that mean? It means Joe Biden started talking to her this afternoon at about 4:30, and she hasn’t been able to get free.

7:37 C-SPAN, God bless ‘em, is talking to Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., the Armed Services Committee Chair. Skelton reminds us all that House members do not rise simply based on their ability to communicate on television. 7:40 How long will Dubya speak for tonight? Well, for reference, C-SPAN shows us the amount of time previous Presidents have taken in what they knew to be their final SOTU.  For example, Eisenhower spoke for 47 minutes, Johnson for 47 minutes, Reagan for 44 minutes, and the ever-verbose Bill Clinton for 1 hour and 39 minutes. So how long will Bush speak? Well, bearing in mind that he’s a lame duck, has no real shot to get any of his agenda passed, and is fairly lazy, I’m betting on 11 minutes, half of which will involve a discussion of Meet the Spartans, which he will praise.

7:45 Expect to see a lot of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama tonight, both will be in the audience for the speech. John McCain, stuck in a virtual tie with Mitt Romney, is off campaigning in Florida and will not attend, so don’t expect to see too much of him.

7:49 Oooh! CNN reports that Barack Obama is sitting by Ted Kennedy! And I bet they totally won’t let Hillary sit by her, she’ll have to sit at a different lunch table desk by, like, that icky Joe Lieberman.

7:50 Bush evidently will describe the State of the Union as strong, as he always does. I swear, I would love to hear a President say that America is not strong or good or wonderful. Alas, there’s more chance that Bush will announce tonight that he and Cheney are stepping down to hand power over to Nancy Pelosi.

7:53 As Andy Birkey reported earlier today, Michele Bachmann is evidently going to be on the aisle. Last year, she attacked and groped the President from that seat (okay, that’s an overstatement, but not by much). Most humans would not repeat that performance, but…well, this is Michele Bachmann we’re talking about. Odds are two to one that someone will slip someone the tongue.

7:55 Norm Coleman has the honor to escort the President into the chambers, along with other folks like Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., and Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Tex. That means he gets to walk Bush into the House of Representatives. He must be very proud.

7:57 John Roberts in the House! 

7:59 If George W. Bush and all of Congress is vaporized in a rain of fire, who will be the next President of the United States? Dirk Kempthorne, the Secretary of the Interior. I’m sure that we all sleep well knowing Dirk Kempthorne could be the leader of the free world.

8:03 CNN is reporting that Kennedy shook Clinton’s hand, but Obama totally didn’t. Oooh! Awkward!

8:04 Will this be Bush’s last SOTU? Well, yeah; his term expires in January. But what if he declares martial law and cancels elections in November, you ask? Come on, that’s crazy talk! If that happens, Bush won’t have to give State of the Union addresses. I mean, how could he, Congress will be dissolved! Sheesh, you crazy conspiracy theorists.

8:05 If you ever hate your job, remember but this: you don’t have to give President Bush a standing ovation tonight, lest you look like a jerk. And booing is considered inappropriate.

8:07 Shot 8 of 31,429 of Obama and Kennedy together.

Bush gives Cheney and Pelosi a copy of the speech, which I always think is nice; I mean, Pelosi doesn’t need it, but if Cheney nods off, he’s going to want to reread what he missed.

8:09 Pelosi introduces Bush, everyone forced to stand and clap again.

8:10 We face “hard decisions” about peace and war. We’ve shown the “power and resilience” of our Government. “It remains our Charge to Keep.”

8:11 Can we compromise? Maybe a bit? Okay, ignore the fact that I haven’t so much ever compromised in my presidency; if I want to get anything done, I need you to compromise. So compromise, damn it!

8:12 We have to “trust people with their own money,” which is why we’re going to give lots of tax breaks to business, because tax cuts are never bad.

8:13 If the Bush tax cuts aren’t reupped, then that’s like a tax hike, because there’ll be an average increase of $1,080 dollars for 116,000,000 Americans. Of course, the mean increase will be, like, $5, but Mitt Romney and his family is really going to be put out.

You know, we’re running about a $7 octillion debt right now; at some point, don’t we have to pay for this stuff? I mean, Bush is talking about balancing budgets, and I’m all for that, but unless we’re withdrawing from Iraq tomorrow, we’re going to have to raise taxes.

8:16 Bush is saying he’s going to veto any bill that doesn’t have a cut in earmarks. The GOP is standing up, but hesitantly, because the GOP is as beholden to earmarks as the Democrats. Odds of Bush getting a bill with significant earmarks cuts: 0%.

8:18 We have to trust patients and doctors to make medical decisions. Then, once decisions are made, we will not actually do anything to make sure patients and doctors get any coverage. Isn’t that awesome?

8:19 Tort reform would reduce medical spending by almost 1 percent, so it’s clear why Bush supports it.

8:20 Seldom is the question asked: is our children learning? No Child Left Behind is teh aw3sum. Reading scores? Up! Math scores? Up! Now, let’s increase accountability and add flexibility, and re-up NCLB despite the fact that everyone who isn’t me hates it.

8:21 Also, shouldn’t we defund public schools and put the money into faith-based institutions? I think so.

8:22 You know, I knew this but it just really hit me: nothing, and I mean nothing, Bush is pushing is going to get done. He really is the ultimate lame duck; he can still block some things and gum up the works, but are we really going to see this Congress put more money into vouchers? No, we aren’t.

8:24 If we don’t push free trade with Columbia, we’re pretty much surrendering all of South America to Hugo Chavez! Aieeeee!

8:25 “For some Americans, trade can mean losing a job.” Really? You think so? What tipped you off, Mr. President?

8:25 We need to reduce our dependence on oil and have clean energy and cleaner coal, and there’s some Congressman who’s sleeping over there. Hey! Wake up! Also, nucyoolar power would be great, wouldn’t it, Charlie Rangel? Yeah, it would.

8:27 By the way, now that I’m in the last year of my presidency and weaker than I’ve ever been, let me say that we need to do something about global climate change! Forget all those times that I was working against curbs on carbon; that was when I was powerful!

8:28 Also, we can’t possibly allow embryonic stem cell research, because those frozen embryos that are being discarded by fertility clinics are better off being thrown away than used to save lives.

8:30 No buying, selling, patenting, or cloning humans! (I think the first two were covered by something, somewhere.)

8:31 None of your activist judges! Only my activist judges should be confirmed!

8:32 Bush mentions New Orleans and the Gulf Coast! That’s one more mention than it got last year.

8:33 We need to do something about entitlements, so given how well the stock markets are doing, I say let’s put our money there! Or something.

8:34 Now we talk about immigration, the real reason John McCain isn’t here tonight. Were he, we’d get a shot of him right now, reminding Republicans that he doesn’t hate immigrants with a white-hot passion.

Bush endorses shamnesty! And Republicans actually applaud! Too late — immigration reform is dead-letter until next year at the earliest.

8:35 Our foreign policy is based on the premise that people will chose peace when given the chance; this is not in any way undermined by our ongoing victory in Iraq.

8:36 First mention of 9/11. Drink.

8:37 “We will stay on the offense, we will deliver pressure, and we will” defeat the Patriots in the Super Bowl Yaaaaaay!

8:38 “We are spreading the hope of freedom.” This is because actual freedom is more difficult to spread than we thought it would be.

8:39 As we mention Afghanistan, I give a shout out to John Marshall, a U.S. Marine Lieutenant who’s stationed in Afghanistan. John, stay safe, and God bless.

8:40 In Iraq, terrorists are fighting us. A year ago, they were succeeding, so we launched the surge, and it didn’t actually accomplish what it was supposed to, and of course one day we’ll have to bring the surged forces home thus returning our forces to the inadequate pre-surge levels…thus solving the problem forever!

8:43 At least Bush is calling militia fighters…wait, I was going to say he was going to accurately refer to them as militia members. But no, he’s back to calling them al Qaeda.

Also, Bush says bin Laden says the surge is working. So…just to clarify, we’re now getting our intel from bin Laden?

8:47 Once more, with feeling: the surge worked to bring down levels of violence, but the Iraqi government is no less dysfunctional than it was a year ago. And the 20,000 soldiers, airmen, marines, and sailors coming home, the ones Bush is so proud are coming home are the ones added in the surge.

8:48 An oblique admission there that progress has not occurred in Baghdad.

8:49 “The mission in Iraq has been difficult.” True. “It is in the vital interests of the United States that it succeed.” False.

8:50 We must attack them over there so they don’t attack them over *yawn*.  Sorry, but we’ve heard this speech from Bush too many times.

8:51 Palestine elected a president who is pro-peace. And they elected a parliament that is…uh…run by Hamas. I’m a strong believer in the two-state solution, but we’re not exactly just around the corner.

8:52 Iran is funding and training people everywhere in the world, and is making nuclear weapons, I totally swear, and not like Iraq was making nuclear weapons, but for real!

8:53 The NSA has kept us from being attacked, and unless we spy on every American at all times, we could be attacked tomorrow! I mean, we have a saying in Texas, and maybe here in Tennessee: A country that wouldn’t trade its essential liberty for security is, uh…you won’t get fooled again.

8:56 America opposes genocide in Sudan. We’re not going to do anything about it. But we sure oppose it.

8:57 We have increased funding for veterans by 95 percent? Good, but how many extra veterans do we have these days?

9:02 “With confidence in freedom’s power, and trust in the people, let us set forth to do their business.” Well, okay, but if you trust in the people, that business is not your business, Mr. President. They’d like to wrap this Iraq thing up. They don’t particularly like you.

The big question: will Bush kiss Bachmann? He’s already kissed Chris Shays!

9:05 Bush almost kisses Norm Coleman, but turns away at the last moment. Has Norm done something with his hair? It looks different.

9:07 Michele is too far away, but on CNN you could hear another member of the House hand bush a program, and say, “It’s for Michele Bachmann.” You know, maybe it’s just me, but if you were a member of Congress, wouldn’t you have too much pride to have the President sign an autograph for you? Especially given the president?

9:12 Chris Matthews just said that Ted Kennedy’s endorsement of Barack Obama was bigger news than the SOTU.

9:15 Howard Fineman: “This is not a ‘big think’ speech about what Americans are concerned about. This is a ‘big think’ speech about what Americans were concerned about three or four years ago.”

9:16 Democrats’ response tonight given by Gov. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas. Sebelius will be endorsing Obama tomorrow, and is considered a short-lister for the number two slot on his ticket.

Sebelius is saying she’s going to give an American response, not a partisan response, on behalf of the “new American majority,” which, unsaid, is Democratic.

9:18 There’s a chance to get “real results” on the economy. Dems “moving in the right direction,” but there’s more to be done.

“We’re asking you, Mr. President: will you join us?” This is an interesting approach. I suspect it will be very well received, especially by the chattering classes that love bipartisanship.

9:20 Essentially, Sebelius is making a low-key attack on obstructionism. She hit Bush on S-CHIP, and is hitting the GOP on energy right now. This is, I think, a canny way to approach it, and for those who like Overton windows and framing and the like, it’s a way to shift the definition of bipartisan from “caving to the GOP” to “caving to the Democrats.”

9:22 Telling the truth about Iraq: Americans are ready to go home.

9:24 “Tonight’s address begins the final year of this presidency.” I’ll drink to that.

9:26 “Let’s get to work,” the mantra of the night for Sebelius. I like it; it’s a nice way to diminish the president.

9:27 So we close: how did Bush do? Well, it’s a gentleman’s C, I think. The speechifying was fine, I suppose. But it was hollow. There wasn’t much there there. Simply, Bush gave the speech of an unpopular, lame-duck president. Which is exactly what he is.