Campaign Notebook: Obama rolls through the Potomac

Living up to expectations and polls, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) won the Potomac primaries in Virginia, Maryland, and Washington D.C., defeating his Senate colleague Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.).

In Virginia, Obama won by a margin of 63-36 as of 9 p.m. CST, with 92 percent reporting. Maryland was a wider margin, with a heavy black vote in the Democratic primary voter universe. Washington, D.C. was another big win for Obama. He has now moved into the lead even when superdelegates are factored in: according to Political Wire, the margin this morning now stands somewhere between 30 and 80 delegates in favor of the Illinois senator.

On the Republican side, John McCain appears to have actually garnered a majority of the primary vote in Virginia, something that hasn’t happened in many states. Projections showed McCain winning Maryland and D.C. as well.On the Republican side, these are winner-take-all primaries, so McCain gets a much-needed boost after an embarrassing weekend.

The situation?

Nothing has changed on the Republican side. On to more interesting issues after the break.
Rumors of efforts to get Republicans to vote for Hillary Clinton in cross-partisan shenanigans appear to have had little, if any, impact on the outcome in Virginia. But we do get a good idea of the strategies of each candidate. Emerging from his victories, Barack Obama appeared Tuesday night in Wisconsin, site of the next big primary a week from tonight. Obama is expected to win there and in Hawaii, leaving Clinton without a win since Super Duper Tuesday.But after Wisconsin and Hawaii, there’s a gap in the calendar until March 4th, when Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont , and Texas vote — and where but Texas could Hillary Clinton be found Tuesday night, shoring up her point-of-no-return defense against Obama’s momentum.

Will it work?

All caveats about poll accuracy apply. However, the latest polls of Ohio indicate a solid (but shrinking) lead for Clinton. Texas is anyone’s guess — the Texas Democratic primary has a dizzying assortment of delegate apportionment rules, including both a primary and a party caucus on the same day. It’s also one of the states where the Clintons don’t have an especially deep roster of political allies and surrogates. The state’s large Latino population will be a big target of candidates and media speculation — Virginia’s voting Latino population was small, but reported to split for Obama 55-45 over Clinton.  The same was the case in Maryland, with Latino voters giving Obama a 53-47 edge.

Then again, in a standard poll sample, those numbers are well within the margin of error, given the size of the Latino segment. As we say here on the Internet, YMMV.