Photo: Minnesota Independent

Photo: Minnesota Independent

Michele Bachmann represents the most Republican-friendly congressional district in Minnesota. John McCain carried the area by eight percentage points in 2008 — the largest spread in the state. Two years earlier Gov. Tim Pawlenty swamped DFLer Mike Hatch by nearly 20 points in the 6th Congressional District. The Cook Partisan Voting Index gives the GOP a seven-point advantage in the area.

But despite this political makeup, Bachmann’s flamboyant personality and penchant for controversy make the race something of a political wild card.

In recent weeks Bachmann has continued to draw national headlines for her often daffy pronouncements. She derided a proposed expansion of Americorps as “politically correct re-education camps” and called on Minnesotans to become “armed and dangerous” in resisting President Obama’s energy policies. Her recent antics once again have Democrats salivating at the prospect of knocking off Bachmann.

At the top of the list of possible contenders for 2010 is her 2008 DFL opponent Elwyn Tinklenberg. The former state transportation commissioner, who lost to Bachmann by three percentage points, is all but declaring himself a candidate.

“I continue to be concerned about many of the things that Rep. Bachmann is saying and espousing, and kind of the approach she has taken on so many of the issues,” Tinklenberg says. “I think people in the Sixth District are the real losers in all of this, and I think that’s unfortunate.”

Tinklenberg has been testing the waters for a 2010 campaign both in Minnesota and Washington. He’s been courting the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and national labor unions whose financial support would be key if he decides to take another run at the post. Tinklenberg has also kept his name in the mix by doling out contributions to other Democrats and sponsoring the DFL’s Hubert H. Humphrey Day dinner.

He would have an advantage with the groundwork he has laid over the last four years, but not everyone is enthusiastic about the prospect of another shot for the former mayor of Blaine. There’s been considerable grumbling about the effectiveness of the campaign he ran two years ago. Most notably, political observers question why Tinklenberg ended the race with nearly $500,000 still sitting in the bank.

“They ran a piss-poor campaign,” says one veteran DFL insider, who didn’t want to be named criticizing a member of his own party. “They were trying to bio Elwyn two weeks out. You want to establish your identity before the media market gets so cluttered.”

Tinklenberg says the money simply arrived too late to spend it all effectively. “By the time that money started pouring into our campaign, a lot of the media time had already been purchased,” he notes. “There just wasn’t a lot of room left to buy a lot of media.”

That leftover war chest would have at least given Tinklenberg a head start on the money hunt for 2010, but most of it’s since been spent. Last month the campaign cut two $125,000 checks to the DCCC. At the end of March, Tinklenberg’s campaign coffers were down to roughly $180,000.

Tinklenberg acknowledges that the campaign could have done a more effective job with advertising and that get-out-the-vote efforts in Anoka and Wright counties were insufficient. He’s been getting an earful from DFL operatives about what the campaign could have done better as he contemplates another run.

“They are willing to be brutally honest and that’s what we need,” he says. “There’s no room left for being naïve. This is a tough district, and we know we have to have the very best approach if we were to decide to do it again.”

Tinklenberg says he will make the call by July. “I think if someone’s going to run an effective campaign they would need to start by the beginning of the third quarter of this year and start raising money aggressively,” he says.

Clark a contender?

While Tinklenberg seems the most likely to take a run at Bachmann, other names are being floated as possible contenders. At the top of the list: state Sen. Tarryl Clark. The Assistant Majority Leader is seen as a rising star in DFL circles and is frequently mentioned as a possible 2010 gubernatorial contender. But with a bloated crop of candidates eyeing the Governor’s mansion, Clark may find the 6th Congressional District race more enticing.

“If Tarryl would run she would take the endorsement in a heartbeat,” says the same DFL insider.

Clark didn’t return calls from MnIndy seeking comment. Any future political plans are likely on hold until the end of the legislative session. Clark’s stock might not be as high after grappling with the state’s nearly $5 billion budget deficit.

Nancy Schumaker, chair of the DFL in the Sixth Congressional District, says three possible candidates have emerged for the post, but she’s not offering names. “I do not have permission to release their names,” she says. “Right now it’s just conversations.”

The DCCC maintains that whoever ultimately emerges as the party’s candidate, it’s eager to wage a vigorous campaign against Bachmann.

“Instead of addressing the needs of the people she represents, the Congresswoman focuses her efforts on promoting far right-wing ideology and pursuing extremist rhetoric,” says Gabby Adler, Midwest Regional Press Secretary for the DCCC, in a statement to MnIndy.

“The people of the Sixth District are fed up with Congresswoman Bachmann, and we expect a strong challenger to emerge who will reflect the voters’ values and fight to protect jobs, reduce home foreclosures and promote local economic growth by promoting small business development.”

But reality may be different from the fiery rhetoric. The vast gains for House Democrats in the last two election cycles mean that the party will be defending a lot of seats in GOP-friendly areas. Couple that with the fact that historically the party controlling Congress and the White House has lost seats in the first election following a presidential campaign, and it seems likely that Democrats will utilize the bulk of their resources to defend the seats they already have.

“It’s way too early to know what seats the DCCC will target,” notes Nathan Gonzales, Political Editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. “But they will be forced to focus a lot more on defending their own seats this cycle, rather than knocking off Republican incumbents.”

Bachmann may be a figure of ridicule in liberal circles, but she’s proven herself a formidable political force in the conservative Sixth Congressional District.

“Despite all of the Democratic money and rhetoric, and even her own missteps, she keeps winning,” Gonzales adds. “Democrats love to hate Michele Bachmann, but they can’t seem to figure out how to defeat her.”