Clinton scores wins, still lags in delegate count
Wednesday, March 05, 2008 at 7:30 am
- 4 Comments
Sen. Hillary Clinton scored the wins her campaign said she needed to stay in the race for the Democratic nomination last night, but will remain in second place behind Sen. Barack Obama in the total delegate count.
The small states of Vermont and Rhode Island were called early in the night, Vermont for Obama and Rhode Island for Clinton, virtually cancelling each other out in terms of delegate apportionments. The action was in Ohio and Texas, and after a string of defeats following the Super Duper Tuesday primaries, Clinton finally prevailed.
In Ohio, Clinton won by a 54-46 margin over Obama, keeping him to outright victories in only urban pockets around the state, while in Texas her margin was slimmer, at 51-48.
However, according to CNN, Obama has prevailed in Texas’ Democratic caucuses, which will assign 67 delegates to the Democratic National Convention in addition to the 126 assigned by the primary. Due to bizarre primary rules, odd demographic and vote breakdowns, and the slim margin of victory, we may not know for some time just how many delegates each candidate will get. But Burnt Orange Report has a great breakdown showing that, as of 2 a.m. today, Obama would receive 62 and Clinton would receive 63 from the primary.
Read the whole story after the breakIf Obama’s 52-48 margin in the Texas caucuses holds up once all the votes are counted (currently CNN indicates that 37 percent are in), he will receive 37 delegates to Clinton’s 30. Ohio should split its delegates about 73-68 in favor of Clinton. That adds up to a grand margin of victory of exactly one delegate for Clinton.
Clinton’s campaign can count Tuesday as a big win. She needed one, she and her campaign worked hard, and they got it. In the PR and media wars, Clinton gets a W, and will no doubt raise a pretty penny from her online fundraising base this week. But the actual effect is more than a little ambiguous. Before last night Clinton had only a narrow route to a delegate majority, pledged or generally, and this morning that route remains narrow, having widened by only a scant margin due to the results from Ohio. The media narrative today will likely point to Clinton’s assaults against Obama’s position on NAFTA as a primary mover in the two big states, but will just as likely ignore the fact that after the spate of contests on Feb. 5, the Clinton campaign concentrated almost solely on these two states for three solid weeks.
With recent comments from former candidate Bill Richardson advocating that the delegate leader this morning should be the nominee, it will be interesting to see what superdelegates like Richardson decide to do before this weekend. With the Republican nomination finally decided, said Richardson, “I think we’ve got to be ready for a very strong John McCain. Republicans are united right now. They don’t have a divisive primary. It looks like the tone of our campaign is heading much too negative. And I want to see us after Tuesday basically come together and see where we are and move on to the general election.”
Hardcore Clinton supporters will no doubt disagree.
So where do we go from here?
NBC’s Tom Brokaw reported yesterday that a source close to the Obama campaign indicated 50 superdelegates ready to come out of the shadows for the Illinois senator, and Obama still has not reported his February fundraising, which is widely expected to smash all previous records. In short, Obama still has some good material to push back against a positive media cycle for Clinton.
The calendar marches inexorably onward, however, with upcoming contests this Saturday in Wyoming (who would have thought that Wyoming would have a role in the Democratic contest?), next Tuesday in Mississippi (ditto) and then a gap until April 22, when Pennsylvania goes to the polls as the only large state remaining on the schedule.
The spin-free reality today is this: the Democratic Party is the biggest winner of these competitive contests. As long as the remaining contests remain relatively cordial and the candidates don’t go scorched-earth-negative on one another (let’s face it, the “3 a.m.” ad wasn’t quite “scorched-earth”), the Obama and Clinton campaigns have done more in one cycle to build the party’s volunteer lists, voter ID rolls and electoral capacity in one cycle than the combined efforts of Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and all the DNCs they represented have over the past 20 years combined. America has not seen a race like this one in a very, very long time, and so far, it has been incredibly exciting to watch.
4 Comments
Comment posted March 5, 2008 @ 11:25 am
Good contests? I agree that the contests have been largely positive for the Democrats. The red-phone ad wasn’t anything out of line, and it is indeed what McCain will do anyways. I’m deeply concerned about the NAFTA/Canada flap, which is almost entirely invented, but it may not have legs. We’ll just see.
As time goes on, however, more ugly stuff will happen and it will only get more bitter. Right now, there is energy. I don’t think that will last if it comes down to Michigan/Florida and Superdelegates. Insider games will turn people off even more quickly than they were turned on.
The possibility of a combined ticket has only gotten stronger right now, and it is just a question of who is the lead. I think that contest has been decided already, and it will be Obama, but the Clinton people don’t seem to want to accept second prize. I hope that the party leaders who have stayed in the shadows, including Gore and Edwards and Richardson, start pushing that hard with the two of them.
While I admire Obama, I think Clinton’s skill would greatly help him. A lineup that includes both of them – plus Richardson for Secretary of State and Edwards as Attorney General – would be very strong. It’s the only way out of this that really captures the energy and takes it forward to November. Letting that energy expend itself now would be a terrible waste.
Comment posted March 5, 2008 @ 11:46 pm
Democratic delegates I am a Black man and i live in Michigan the way i see it is Michigan should not get the chance to have a due over because of our so called leaders of the democratic party was a blunder to me and all other voters in michigan. they cared not when they were told not to move the date up now all of a sudden they care what we the voters have to say, i feel michigan should have to deal with the fact that on this one it was a big blunder on our partys behalf and in no way do i want to save the leaders of our party from there big huge blunder. let the rest of the other states vote and who ever has the most delegates at the end win. If the Super delegates steal the win from SEN. Obama and give it to the flip flopper Clinton i will go out vote and campane for John Mccain. I am tierd of the Powers in this world stealing from us as Blacks. Every time were in the spot too do great thing in the U.S White Poeple powers all ways try to find a way to steal it from us. And the way i see it that is what Clinton is tring to do to SEN. Obama So if they take the win from SEN. Obama and give it to Clinton I as a Democrat will go out and Vote for John MCcain and all of my Friends Will join me as well
Comment posted March 5, 2008 @ 5:25 am
Good contests? I agree that the contests have been largely positive for the Democrats. The red-phone ad wasn't anything out of line, and it is indeed what McCain will do anyways. I'm deeply concerned about the NAFTA/Canada flap, which is almost entirely invented, but it may not have legs. We'll just see.
As time goes on, however, more ugly stuff will happen and it will only get more bitter. Right now, there is energy. I don't think that will last if it comes down to Michigan/Florida and Superdelegates. Insider games will turn people off even more quickly than they were turned on.
The possibility of a combined ticket has only gotten stronger right now, and it is just a question of who is the lead. I think that contest has been decided already, and it will be Obama, but the Clinton people don't seem to want to accept second prize. I hope that the party leaders who have stayed in the shadows, including Gore and Edwards and Richardson, start pushing that hard with the two of them.
While I admire Obama, I think Clinton's skill would greatly help him. A lineup that includes both of them – plus Richardson for Secretary of State and Edwards as Attorney General – would be very strong. It's the only way out of this that really captures the energy and takes it forward to November. Letting that energy expend itself now would be a terrible waste.
Comment posted March 5, 2008 @ 5:46 pm
Democratic delegates I am a Black man and i live in Michigan the way i see it is Michigan should not get the chance to have a due over because of our so called leaders of the democratic party was a blunder to me and all other voters in michigan. they cared not when they were told not to move the date up now all of a sudden they care what we the voters have to say, i feel michigan should have to deal with the fact that on this one it was a big blunder on our partys behalf and in no way do i want to save the leaders of our party from there big huge blunder. let the rest of the other states vote and who ever has the most delegates at the end win. If the Super delegates steal the win from SEN. Obama and give it to the flip flopper Clinton i will go out vote and campane for John Mccain. I am tierd of the Powers in this world stealing from us as Blacks. Every time were in the spot too do great thing in the U.S White Poeple powers all ways try to find a way to steal it from us. And the way i see it that is what Clinton is tring to do to SEN. Obama So if they take the win from SEN. Obama and give it to Clinton I as a Democrat will go out and Vote for John MCcain and all of my Friends Will join me as well
RSS feed for comments on this post.
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
