Republican activists express dissatisfaction by moving further right

The Minnesota House Republican caucus lost more than a dozen seats in the 2004 elections, then again in 2006, losing the majority to the DFL. Now, in the aftermath of transportation legislation spun by the Republican Party as pork-laden, Republican activists are expressing their dissatisfaction with their incumbents who voted with the DFL to override Gov. Pawlenty’s veto.

By kicking them unceremoniously to the curb.

The Senate District 41 Republican endorsing convention was held on Saturday, and delegates from 41B endorsed Jan Schneider, an executive business consultant, over two-term State Rep. Neil Peterson. Schneider criticizes Peterson for voting with the DFL on the transportation bill override as well as the Twins Stadium bill and says on her Web site, “Republicans win when we provide an alternative – not an adjustment” to the DFL majority.  Peterson’s colleague from the other side of SD41, Ron Erhardt, was also punished in favor of Keith Downey.

Peterson told WCCO-TV that he would run in the GOP primary, while Erhardt said he wasn’t sure whether he would run in a primary or as an independent candidate. These two scenarios will play out in interesting ways for the incumbents, their Republican-endorsed challengers, and the DFL. DFL candidate Paul Rosenthal won 46 percent against Peterson in 2006. If he holds his 2006 votes and garners extra votes due to increased presidential turnout, he could benefit from a split Republican base. If the primary between Peterson and Schneider gets nasty, no matter who wins, some voters will be turned off and likely to stay home on Election Day. This is especially poignant given how late Minnesota’s primary date is — eight weeks between a September primary and the November general election isn’t much time to solidify one’s base and reach out to independents to build a winning coalition.

Peterson faced a primary in 2006, when a Republican challenger won about 33 percent of the primary vote.

Erhardt’s decision could carry even more weight. If he chooses to run as an independent, he can bypass the primary altogether and run in the general election. This would almost certainly cleave the Republican base in two, with some supporting the endorsed candidate, while others — those not as tightly engaged with the party apparatus and its endorsement — support the veteran representative. If Erhardt splits the Republican vote, and the DFL candidate (who has not yet been endorsed) wins, the DFL gets one vote closer to a veto-proof majority. If Erhardt wins, then a veteran legislator who’s willing to work in a bipartisan way to improve the general welfare returns to the House with few if any political debts to the Republican leadership. If Schneider wins (probably the least likely outcome, given Erhardt’s advantages as a well-known incumbent), then the Republican minority has moved itself even further to the right than it already finds itself, and no caucus membership numbers have really changed as a result of the race.

This would be a win-win-win for the DFL.

Elsewhere in the state, other override-supporting Republicans suffered as well: Jim Abeler was denied an endorsement (although no challenger was endorsed in his place), and a decision on whether to endorse Kathy Tingelstad was delayed. It’s clear that the Republican base is not happy with the Override Six — the question is whether the punishments they are meting out over the transportation bill override are ultimately in the best interests of their party.