Analysis: Clinton faces uphill climb in remaining states
Thursday, March 13, 2008 at 1:31 am
- 2 Comments
There are six weeks until the Pennsylvania primary, and just a handful of states are still waiting to cast their ballots. So where does the Democratic race stand, and can it be said to still be a race? Here’s a quick run-down of the states outstanding, and where Clinton and Obama can look to advance between now and June.
| State | Date | Analysis | Clinton | Obama |
Pennsylvania 158 |
4/22 | Pennsylvania looks to be the most difficult state on the map for Obama to win, and the easiest for Clinton to claim. Al Giordano has looked at the state, and forecasts a “big delegate victory” for Clinton. He’s projecting a 60-40 Clinton win, which he translates out to a net +26 for Clinton. I see no reason to doubt that, and that’s the number I’m plugging in. | +26 | |
Guam 4 |
5/3 | Do I have any specific knowledge of what’s going to happen in Guam? No, not at all. I’m basing this slight Clinton pick-up on the fact that it’s a fairly conservative Catholic territory, and Clinton has done well among Catholics. This could just as easily swing to native Pacific Islander Obama, though, so take this with a big grain of salt. | +2 | |
Indiana 72 |
5/6 | Of all the states left on the board, Indiana is probably the purest toss-up. It borders Obama’s home state of Illinois, so he should get a regional boost from that. But it also borders Michigan and Ohio, at least one of which has been won by Clinton. It’s the most conservative of the Rust Belt states, and is really divided between the Chicago-oriented northwest and the south of the state, which is pretty southern. So will it behave more like Ohio, or more like Wisconsin? I think Obama’s proximity nets him a narrow win here, but it’s the best shot for a Clinton surprise. | +5 | |
North Carolina 115 |
5/6 | Just as it’s very unlikely Clinton can lose Pennsylvania, it’s very unlikely that Obama can lose North Carolina. I’m going to go conservative and give Obama a +15, but he could do much better than that. | +15 | |
West Virginia 28 |
5/13 | West Virginia should trend strongly toward Clinton. There’s no reason to think that the mostly white, working-class voters there will break differently than they have anywhere else. Not a big state, but a Clinton win. | +4 | |
Kentucky 51 |
5/20 | Here’s the thing: while I think Clinton will win Kentucky for the same reasons she won Ohio (and the same reasons I think she’ll win West Virginia and Pennsylvania), this could very well be the last state Clinton can win. Michigan and Florida are open questions right now, and the remaining states favor Obama. Clinton will need to get a big, big win here, and surprise somewhere else. | +8 | |
Oregon 52 |
5/20 | There’s no reason to think that Oregon should be particularly different than Washington, which went heavily for Obama. Full of the latte liberals Obama has run strong with, it should more than offset a loss in Kentucky. | +10 | |
Puerto Rico 55 |
6/1 | Puerto Rico is going to be interesting. It’s the last major prize, save possibly Florida and Michigan. And at first blush, it would appear to be solid Clinton territory, with its obviously strongly Latino population. But here’s the thing: Obama has the endorsement of An
2 Comments
wabbit
Comment posted March 13, 2008 @ 10:07 am Yes, it’s obvious So why is this even being debated in the press? Why do so many Democrats think it’s worth continuing this charade? The only thing that can possibly happen as things go on is that it will be more divisive. SurveyUSA has shown us that this is the Democrats’ year, if only we don’t screw up. We’re screwing up. Bigtime. The problem with Democrats over my lifetime has been that they just don’t keep their eyes on the prize. What is it that we are trying to accomplish here? If it’s not gaining the White House so that we can change the miserable record of the last 8 years, what is it? How do we achieve our goals? If the Superdelegates are worth anything, they will start pledging for Obama in order to put an end to this early. That they haven’t done that shows that there is no point to the system as it exists now.
wabbit
Comment posted March 13, 2008 @ 5:07 am Yes, it's obvious So why is this even being debated in the press? Why do so many Democrats think it's worth continuing this charade? The only thing that can possibly happen as things go on is that it will be more divisive. SurveyUSA has shown us that this is the Democrats' year, if only we don't screw up. We're screwing up. Bigtime. The problem with Democrats over my lifetime has been that they just don't keep their eyes on the prize. What is it that we are trying to accomplish here? If it's not gaining the White House so that we can change the miserable record of the last 8 years, what is it? How do we achieve our goals? If the Superdelegates are worth anything, they will start pledging for Obama in order to put an end to this early. That they haven't done that shows that there is no point to the system as it exists now. RSS feed for comments on this post. Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time. 
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