The Schultz Report: Al Franken’s soccer mom problem

In this week’s audiocast, David Schultz looks at the SurveyUSA poll from earlier this week indicating that Democratic US Senate candidate Al Franken faces a serious gender gap in his bid to unseat Sen. Norm Coleman. The Monitor’s Joe Bodell wrote that the SurveyUSA snapshot “has ‘outlier’ written all over it,” but Schultz thinks that Franken’s troubles with suburban female voters are real and abiding.

“I’ve been a little skeptical of the polls that have come out in the last couple of months showing that Coleman and Franken are in a dead heat,” says Schultz. “The reason why is exactly what this poll is pointing out. The weakness that Franken has had all along, I thought, was among female suburban voters. As I’ve mentioned on this report in the past, that’s a key swing vote that you need to pick up to win statewide office in Minnesota. It’s the key vote that Franken and Coleman are fighting for in this election. This is the vote that Amy Klobuchar nailed hands down two years ago. She got 63 percent of the female vote in the state of Minnesota.

“This poll suggests that whatever inroads [Franken] was starting to make among that constituency, he still hasn’t closed the deal. As I’ve talked to different groups in places like Plymouth, Minnetonka, Maple Grove–places that I think are going to be the battleground–Democratic party leaders out there are very, very antsy about Franken for that very reason. They’re saying that what they’re hearing on the ground, despite what the polls were saying until a few days ago, is that Franken is not playing well with that constituency. Whether or not the gap is 10 points, I don’t know. But I think it does point to the fact that this is a soft spot of support for Franken in one key constituency.”

Also: Obama’s speech on race, Florida/Michigan follies, and NTSB/35W bridge politics. 

The Schultz Report audiocast (12:11)

powered by ODEO