Pawlenty expected to bow out of 2010 contest

Tim Pawlenty will announce whether he plans to seek a third term as governor this afternoon. The early word: he’s not running for re-election. Both WCCO (Channel 4)  political reporter Pat Kessler and Minnesota Public Radio’s Tom Scheck cite sources that indicate Pawlenty has decided against seeking a third term and is dialing up national Republican leaders to deliver the news.

Running for re-election in 2010 would be a risky proposition for Pawlenty. He’s twice won office with less than 50 percent of the vote, and in 2008 he benefited from the implosion of Democrat Mike Hatch’s campaign in the final week before election day.

Furthermore, it’s unknown what kind of political blowback Pawlenty will receive once the dust has settled on the state’s ongoing budget problems. Early polling by SurveyUSA suggested that the Republican governor came out of the session with reasonably good prospects for re-election. But that’s before he unilaterally cuts roughly $1 billion from the budget. Losing a re-election bid would almost certainly derail Pawlenty’s national political ambitions.

Speculation will now turn to who will fill the gubernatorial void for the GOP. It’s likely to be a crowded field. Some names expected to be in the mix: former U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad, former Pawlenty chief of staff Charlie Weaver, House Minority Leader Marty Seifert, former House Speaker Steve Sviggum, state Rep. Laura Brod and state Sen. Julie Rosen.

Pawlenty’s decision will also undoubtedly ramp up speculation that he’s going to run for president in 2012.