Isn’t the real question, “Did Pawlenty’s fear of being defeated in a 2010 gubernatorial bid dictate his decision ?”

A Presidential campaign is easier to promote when the candidate is a sitting Governor — Bush succeeded while Romney, Huckabee, Pataki, Thompson could barely get media attention. Pawlenty has been a mainstay on news programs … as a sitting Governor his words carry more interest. In the new world of cable news, Pawlenty will be competing with Romney, Huckabee, Sanford, Barbour, etc for air time.
Looking at the current crop of Republican contenders, Pawlenty does not have an easy core group of voters to attract – he’s not military, etc. Iowa will start out the primary season and the Same Sex Marriage will be on front stage – Huckabee won in 2008 and no reason why he should not win again. Next up should be New Hampshire where Romney should do well. Pawlenty’s candidacy could be finished very early.

Now, as a sitting Governor, Pawlenty would have had appeal as a VP candidate especially if Romney gets the nomination.

That really leads to 2016 as Pawlenty’s real campaign date … something that would have naturally followed the completion of his third term in 2014.

Back to my question, YES, he saw a difficult (although not unwinable) path to another term … he chickened out.