Which DFLers are cheering for Pawlenty’s VP chances?

In 2006 Gov. Tim Pawlenty defied the political odds. Despite wide gains by Democrats in state legislative races, a resounding victory by Amy Klobuchar in the U.S. Senate race and a sweep of the other state constitutional offices, Pawlenty outpolled Mike Hatch by just 22,000 votes to retain the governorship.

Of course, he was helped by the implosion of his DFL opposition in the waning days of the campaign. Lieutenant governor candidate Judi Dutcher’s bumbling response to a question about E85 ethanol was arguably survivable. But Hatch’s bullying, over-the-top response to the flap merely served to ratify the caricature of him as an unstable hothead that Republicans had been attempting to paint for months.

Despite that lucky break, there’s no doubt that Pawlenty is a nimble campaigner whose Aw shucks, I’m just Tim from South St. Paul schtick plays well with voters. In what is clearly shaping up as a brutal political climate for the GOP in 2008, T-Paw still regularly commands not-too-shabby approval ratings of 50 percent or better.

So Democrats could be forgiven for (quietly) hoping that Pawlenty is indeed tapped by John McCain for the Republican presidential ticket. With the two-term incumbent out of the way, and Gov. Carol Molnau (!) as his lame-going-on-dead-duck successor, the field would be extremely enticing for DFLers — who haven’t won the state’s top post for nearly two decades.

“Any Democrat sizing up the governor’s race will be encouraged not to be facing an incumbent who’s been a political killing machine,” says Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota. “The stronger quality candidates are more likely to jump in the more open they see the race.”

Some DFLers aren’t bothering to wait and see if Pawlently ultimately gets the nod from McCain.

Continued: Click “Read more”Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner has been raising money and traveling the state for more than a year already in anticipation of a 2010 bid. Last weekend the four-term prosecutor was working the room at the 6th Congressional District’s DFL endorsing convention. Yesterday she was on the road to Duluth for a house party. “I’m not talking about it; I’m doing it,” says Gaertner of running for governor.

Also testing the waters is Sen. Tom Bakk, chair of the powerful Taxes Committee. The Virginia DFLer intends to form an exploratory committee to gauge support for a gubernatorial run as soon as the legislative session ends later this month. “I don’t see where we’re getting much leadership out of Gov. Pawlenty,” Bakk says. “I’m just not going to sit by and manage the decline of the state.”

Bakk says that earlier this week the Ghermezian brothers, owners of the Mall of America, were in town to promote their plans for a roughly $2 billion expansion. They expected to meet with Pawlenty about their proposed development, but were forced to settle for a confab with some of his staff members. “Here they come down from Edmonton, the people who own the Mall of America, and they can only get a meeting with the staff,” Bakk says. “I’m just very troubled by the fact that I don’t think the governor is very interested in governing.”

Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak could also be seen stalking the 6th District convention last weekend. Surely constituent services weren’t his motivation. The 52-year-old two-term mayor openly floated the possibility of seeking the governorship at a New Year’s Eve fundraiser.

Rybak’s counterpart across the river, St. Paul Mayor Chris Coleman, is also frequently cited as a pol with gubernatorial ambitions. But he’ll face re-election in 2009, and it would require an exceedingly dexterous political dance to then turn around and run for governor. Another former mayor of St. Paul who shares Coleman’s surname famously failed to make that electoral leap in 1998.

Several state legislative leaders might also find the race enticing. House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, fresh from successfully corralling enough votes to override Pawlenty’s veto on the transportation bill, is drawing attention. “Kelliher has been soaring in people’s estimation,” says Jacobs. “That was a very difficult vote and to be able to pull it off and pull away those Republicans in an era of hyperpartisanship is notable.”

Her ally in the Senate, Assistant Majority Leader Tarryl Clark, is also drawing attention from political prognosticators. Another potential wild card is third-term Rep. Joe Atkins, whose penchant for getting his name in the media has not gone unnoticed. “Within the Legislature, Atkins is the one that everybody seems to think is being groomed,” says David Schultz, political science professor at Hamline University.

The final name that pops up frequently in discussions about the 2010 gubernatorial race is first-term U.S. Rep. Tim Walz. The Minnesota National Guard vet from Mankato soared to rock-star status in the DFL by defeating seven-term incumbent Gil Gutknecht two years ago and has raised a formidable war chest to protect his seat this year. “He certainly has impressed people. And he comes from outstate, which is a big advantage,” says Jacobs.

Those politicos who are open about their gubernatorial ambitions profess to not be daunted by a potential electoral dustup with Pawlenty if he ultimately fails to get the VP nod.

“That’s obviously a more difficult task,” says Gaertner. “But I’m more than willing and ready to run against Tim Pawlenty.”

“If he is in, I’m probably more likely to be in,” says Bakk. “He’s got a record to run against. He won’t be easy to beat, but he does have a record.”