Survey USA: Franken hurt by tax issues
Monday, May 05, 2008 at 7:22 am
- 8 Comments
The latest Survey USA poll of the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota reveals that Al Franken’s tax problems are hurting him with voters. A staggering 59 percent said they were “less likely” to support Franken because of his tax issues, while 31 percent said it had no effect on their vote.
Sen. Norm Coleman leads Franken in a head-to-head comparison, 52 percent to 42 percent, with the remainder undecided. When broken down by party affiliation, 99 percent of Republicans support Coleman and 1 percent support Franken. On the DFL side, 67 percent support Franken and 27 percent support Coleman. One of the few bright spots for Franken remains his appeal to independents, who favor him 57 percent to Coleman’s 33 percent.
Since Franken has not yet secured the DFL nomination, Survey USA also polled head-to-head races with the two other competitive DFL contenders, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer and Darryl Stanton. Coleman bests Nelson-Pallmeyer 55 percent to 36 percent and bests Stanton 53 percent to 35 percent.
Some are suggesting that the survey qualifies as a push poll, because “it doesn’t contain all of the information about the situation, it fails to mention that Franken paid taxes on the entire amount and then it asks the associated damaging question about whether or not he should drop out.”
Commissioned by KSTP, the Survey USA poll consisted of phone interviews with 700 likely Minnesota voters on April 30 and May 1 and had a margin of error of about 4.5 percentage points.
Update:The contention that this poll was a push poll because “it fails to mention that Franken paid taxes on the entire amount,” may be inaccurate. The Star Tribune first published information provided by the Franken campaign showing the candidate overpaid his taxes in New York and Minnesota at 11:43 PM on April 29. David Brauer of MinnPost credited the Star Tribune for breaking the story on his Daily Glean blog the morning of April 30.
Survey USA conducted the poll April 30 and May 1 and the pollsters quite possibly did not learn of the new information released by the Franken campaign until after the poll had commenced.
8 Comments
Comment posted May 5, 2008 @ 8:16 am
Timing Aaron, I haven’t had time to track down the time-line to the story, but I believe information regarding Franken over-paying in MN and NY didn’t come out until late on 4/29. The poll was conducted during the next two days. Its possible that the timing of the poll and the timing of new information being released resulted in the appearance on impropriety. Again, I’ll have to look into this more, but I’ll reserve the slings and arrows while there is still reasonable doubt.
Comment posted May 5, 2008 @ 8:18 am
To clarify The poll was conducted 4/30 – 5/1 and the relevant information appears to have come out late on 4/29.
Comment posted May 5, 2008 @ 11:08 am
Text vs Timing Tom, could you post the exact wording of the survey questions used by SurveyUSA?
If they mention the $70,000 underpayment, as has been reported elsewhere, but not the over-payment details this may indeed qualify as a push-poll.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but the $70,000 figure and the explanation both came from the Franken campaign on the same day. Using the number by itself, without the explanation, seems provocative.
Comment posted May 5, 2008 @ 3:16 am
Timing Aaron, I haven't had time to track down the time-line to the story, but I believe information regarding Franken over-paying in MN and NY didn't come out until late on 4/29. The poll was conducted during the next two days. Its possible that the timing of the poll and the timing of new information being released resulted in the appearance on impropriety. Again, I'll have to look into this more, but I'll reserve the slings and arrows while there is still reasonable doubt.
Comment posted May 5, 2008 @ 3:18 am
To clarify The poll was conducted 4/30 – 5/1 and the relevant information appears to have come out late on 4/29.
Comment posted May 5, 2008 @ 6:08 am
Text vs Timing Tom, could you post the exact wording of the survey questions used by SurveyUSA?
If they mention the $70,000 underpayment, as has been reported elsewhere, but not the over-payment details this may indeed qualify as a push-poll.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the $70,000 figure and the explanation both came from the Franken campaign on the same day. Using the number by itself, without the explanation, seems provocative.
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