Comments on: Clark stays mum as field in Bachmann’s district takes shape

By: Aubrey Immelman

Aubrey Immelman — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 19:55:19 +0000

Northeaster: Thanks for your input.

On the strategy issue, I have some new ideas (my 2008 campaign was just 57 days long, which severely constrained my options), but I’m delaying the decision to run until it becomes clear whether there will be Democratic primary challenges in the 6th District and gubernatorial races.

It will be practically impossible to defeat Bachmann in the Republican primary if there are contested races on the Democratic side of the ballot. If she advances to the general election next year, her odds of winning reelection are about 20 to 1, in my opinion.

Improving the primary turnout would have obvious advantages against Bachmann, because she has a hard-core base of only about 20,000 of the more than 400,000 registered voters in the district; less then 10 percent of registered voters voted in the 2008 primary.

Small correction: I received 7 percent of the total primary vote in 2008. Against Bachmann, I received 14% of the vote in the Republican primary.

By: Northeaster

Northeaster — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 11:29:21 +0000

Mr. Immelman: While I agree that Bachmann being primaried would be the most practical way to remove her from the equation, I have my doubts that the State and National GOP would allow for a viable primary (2008 redux). Playing the spoiler may be something you look forward to, but you gained only 7% of the primary vote last cycle – Do you have a different strategy this go around or are you suggesting an alternative Republican candidate?

After reading your linked article, I noticed that there’s one factor you didn’t address: The 6th, while being the most Republican of all on MN’s Congressional Districts, also has the lowest voter turnout of all of MN’s Congressional Districts. Unless turnout is somehow increased, I wonder how the voters who wish to be rid of Bachmann will have any success. As long as there’s voter apathy, Bachmann will manage to maintain a plurality simply due to the strength of her nearly unlimited Theocon support structure.

By: Aubrey Immelman

Aubrey Immelman — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 02:00:33 +0000

All three Democrats named in the article have unique strengths: Elwyn Tinklenberg acquired a national profile after Bachmann’s Oct. 2009 anti-American rant on “Hardball”; Maureen Reed has strong credentials and a no-nonsense, “can-do” attitude; and Tarryl Clark has a strong political resume and lots of personal charisma.

Whoever advances to the general election ballot will have a difficult row to hoe. The 6th is Minnesota’s most Republican district, meaning that on paper it would be tougher for a Democrat to defeat Bachmann than it would be to defeat Kline or Paulsen.

The truth of the matter is that 96-97% of incumbents are reelected and as a second-term incumbent Bachmann will be even less vulnerable than she was in 2008. In addition, Democrats won’t have Obama at the top of the ticket to get out the vote.

I remain convinced that the most viable strategy to defeat Bachmann is to knock her out of contention in the open Republican primary. More detail at link below:

http://www.immelman.us/news/how-to-beat-bachmann/

By: Northeaster

Northeaster — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 20:46:44 +0000

Let the chips fall where they may. I’m of the belief that Clark would be the perfect DFL candidate for the 6th, assuming the DNC and the DCCC decide to actually support a 6th District Democrat for a change. Of course, the GOP would do all they can to try and protect Bachmann so it would be in the DFL’s interest to endorse the strongest and most viable candidate in the hopes of winning the District as well as the war of attrition in the finance battle. For every extra dollar that the GOP uses to defend Bachmann, that’s one extra dollar that can’t be used to support Kline or Paulsen. Tinklenberg, like Wetterling before him lack any real charisma and is soft on policy that would change voter’s minds away from Bachmann’s loony ways. Tarryl Clark is charismatic as well as a policy wonk and would give the 6th the type of representation it sorely needs and deserves after several cycles of Republican misrepresentation.

By: Mill

Mill — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 19:35:00 +0000

I hope the citizens of Minnesota’s 6th decide to elect someone more competent and more tuned in to reality and major issues than their current representative, who seems to fabricate false issues and beliefs out of thin air (e.g., investigating members Congress for patriotism; accusing ACORN of all sorts of stuff)