RNC ’08 Analysis

The announcement that the Republican National Committee will hold its 2008 Convention in the Twin Cities has been met with varying reactions across the aisle.  What will the real effects be, both short-term and long-term?  Since there has been only one presidential election cycle since the terrorist attacks of 2001, let’s compare against the DNC Convention in 2004 in Boston.  I’m reluctant to compare against New York in 2004 since New York is simply a mammoth urban area.  Seriously.  If you’ve never been to Manhattan, you just can’t comprehend how big this city is.  Comparisons just can’t do it justice.

Plus, I lived in Boston through 2004, and was working for the Kerry Campaign right down the street from the FleetCenter.

More InsideLogistics:  Boston is slightly smaller than Minneapolis and St. Paul combined in terms of population.  It’s also a much older city than the Twin Cities – the roads are not laid out in as organized and…square…a fashion as they are here.  As a result, the expectation leading up to the 2004 DNC was for massive traffic problems, due not only to the crush of incoming travellers but also to security detours and road closings.  I-93, for example, runs within spitting distance of the FleetCenter, and a segment of the highway had to be shut down during the proceedings.

But these logistical nightmares, by and large, did not come to pass.  Security concerns were minor, but many residents and workers in Boston simply cleared out – they either worked from home that week or took a few days off.  The weather in New England was close to perfect.  As a result, parts of the city that didn’t have Convention-related activities going on turned into a ghost town.

Logistically, the Twin Cities are a lot more spread out, and the public transportation system is somewhat lacking.  Boston has the T, a network of underground and surface trains and buses connecting Logan Airport with the rest of the city.  In Minneapolis/St. Paul, I can envision charter bus and taxi companies making a killing on this thing, since only one train line exists here, and people have to move greater distances than in Boston.

Economy:  Some have already touted the economic impact of having a major national convention here.  And it’s true, the 2004 DNC did bring more than $150 million to Boston businesses, mainly hotels and restaurants.  Of course, the drop in other business areas combined with miscellaneous expenditures to total more than $130 million lost.  This meant that the overall economic impact was somewhere around $15 million, as cited by Mayor Tom Menino afterward.  Was $15 million worth the disruption to the city’s summer?  The question was asked then, and it should be asked now.

Visibility:  A major political convention certainly means visibility – for that election cycle.  You would expect there to be lots of puff pieces on the culture of the city, the people, the traditions, and of course media will be crawling all over the place for the period around the event.  But remember how lightly the major networks covered the conventions in 2004 – a ridiculously low number of prime-time hours spent on broadcast TV.  That does not leave a lot of time for coverage of anything besides the keynote speeches.

Not to rain on anyone’s parade, but who hosted the 1996 Conventions?  1992?  1988?  If you know the answers, great.  If you don’t, you shouldn’t feel bad.  These simply aren’t things that stick very long in the memory of those who weren’t intimately involved with the proceedings.

In summary, yes, I think a major national convention is a good thing.  I wish it were the Democrats, but if it were the Democrats my colleagues on the right would be whining that they wished it were the Republicans.  There is a political calculus behind everything the major national committees do, and this move makes it pretty clear the RNC has its sights set on the upper midwest.  If there is to be a large-scale effect on the Twin Cities themselves, it is ambiguous at best whether that effect will be a net positive.  However, it might be a positive to have a front-row seat at one of the biggest shows in American politics.  Time will tell.