How does an Obama victory shake up Minnewisowa?

Minnewisowa is Barry Casselman’s term for the 27 presidential electoral votes held by Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. Writing on Real Clear Politics, he figures that Barack Obama slightly strengthens the prospects of Democrats in the Upper Midwest:

In Minnewisowa, he shows new strength in Minnesota and Iowa (where he dramatically won the first contest of 2008), and possible weakness in Wisconsin where there are more blue collar voters than in the other two states. Nevertheless, all three states could be close in November.

Casselman, who covers national politics for Preludium News Service, also takes a look down the ballot at Minnesota’s Congressional races. He reasons that Al Franken’s senate candidacy will continue on the defensive throughout the campaign (if he indeed gets the DFL endorsement this weekend), while half of the state’s House races bear watching.

Four of the eight Minnesota house seats theoretically could become competitive, but for now, incumbent DFL Congressman Tim Walz (MN-1) and incumbent GOP Congressman John Kline (MN-2) seem safe. In MN-6, incumbent GOP Congresswoman Michele Bachmann will be difficult to oust after her first term, although the DFL picked its strongest possible challenger Ev Tinklenberg to run against her. Tinklenberg so far trails Bachmann in fundraising in this conservative district.

Of course, the House race firmly on the national radar screen is the seat being vacated by Rep. Jim Ramstad, with Democrat Ashwin Madia squaring off against Republican Erik Paulsen. “It could be one of the most competitive House races in the nation in 2008,” Casselman concludes.