A Look Ahead: Another Perspective on the 2008 RNC

I don’t think the RNC chose the Twin Cities for 2008 just to screw over the DNC.  Their attendant rabble-rousers delight in that pleasant side-effect, but there are other reasons for it.  The geo-political realities are certainly salient – Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa are a hefty prize in the Electoral College.  But as much as pundits like to prognosticate about smoke-filled rooms where chess pieces are moved around a map of the U.S., I think there’s a much simpler, much strong factor behind this decision.

His name is Norm Coleman.

Let’s get one point of national strategy straight – I hope the Democrats take back the Senate this year, especially now that Dear Leader gets to define torture however he pleases, habeas corpus be damned.  But realistically, we would have to run the table for that to happen.  Potential pickups in Montana, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Ohio are great, and I think all four are going to happen.  After that, however, where do we look?  Virginia is a strong possibility, as is Missouri, where the race between Democrat Claire McCaskill and Republican Jim Talent is essentially tied.  Same situation in Tennessee with Democrat Harold Ford and Republican Bob Corker.

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However, there’s a serious potential for a Republican pickup in New Jersey this year.  Even if we get five clean pickups, we’re stuck at 50 and Dick Cheney is the tiebreaker.

Assume it’s a tight situation post-2006.  Who’s the most-endangered Republican incumbent, a loss for whom might shift the balance of power in the Senate?

Take a look at the 2002 results.  Not many especially close races.  South Dakota maybe, but John Thune is now a Senator himself, having defeated Tom Daschle in 2004.  Colorado’s Wayne Allard (R) is a possibility, but Colorado voted for Bush last time around, so it might be seen as somewhat safe.  Democrat Mary Landrieu didn’t win by a wide margin, but holding the RNC in New Orleans might call attention to the collossal failure of a Republican administration to address the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

But Mr. Coleman, current occupant of the seat once held by Paul Wellstone, is the only incumbent who did not clear 50% in 2002.  Now that we know he’s running for re-election instead of higher office, the RNC’s presence here in the Twin Cities takes on a rather defensive air – there is a serious potential that a Coleman loss in 2008 will represent the tipping point to Democratic control of the Senate.

Of course sticking it to the DNC made a whole lot of sense.  But with a long-range strategic view in hand, the Twin Cities weren’t just the best choice for the RNC – the Twin Cities were the only choice.