Comments on: Clark confident she can tap resources to take on Bachmann

By: » Morning Report 8/5/2009

» Morning Report 8/5/2009 — Mon, 17 Aug 2009 10:11:01 +0000

[...] Clark confident she can tap resources to take on Bachmann, Minnesota Independent [...]

By: T-Paw Is A Jerk

T-Paw Is A Jerk — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 16:30:28 +0000

Neither Ms. Clark nor Dr. Reed are supporting the single payer option for health care reform. This is a big time issue for me and unless they change their stance, I will again vote the Green Party.

No money and no support to the Democrats until they state catagorically in a public forum that they support single payer programs.

People, they both need to hear this from every one of us. Scream it loud and clear…”Want to defeat Bachman? Then get on board and do not weasel out of your responsibilities to bring this basic right to all in this country.”

By: MNBlue

MNBlue — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 05:54:57 +0000

Why would Reed run on the Indy ticket? Her goal is to oust Bachmann. She’s working very hard to get the endorsement and we still have quite a ways to go before the caucus.

Reed is running as a Democrat and hopefully we’ll see her get the nod. She’s said many times “Plan A is to get the nomination. But we do have a back up plan, Plan B is to make plan A work. There is no other plan” I’m kinda paraphrasing, but basically she’s in it for the DFL nomination.

By: Bruce Anderson

Bruce Anderson — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 04:16:41 +0000

Aubrey:

Interesting analysis but I can’t imagine any scenario where Dr. Reed files as the IP candidate. Follow the money. The people and groups who have given her over 200k have done so with the expectation she is a Democrat.

Don’t forget that this still could become a three way race with Bob Anderson on the IP ticket. For a centrist that leans right that would make the race far more unpredictable.

By: Aubrey Immelman

Aubrey Immelman — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 00:32:11 +0000

“Clark vows to abide by the DFL endorsement, a stance that will likely endear her to the party faithful. Maureen Reed, currently her only rival for party backing, has not made such a vow.”

That’s really the crux. The worst-case scenario for Sen. Tarryl Clark, if she wins the DFL endorsement next spring, is that Dr. Reed files as an Independence Party candidate. That would leave Sen. Clark with no viable route to defeating Rep. Michele Bachmann in a district with barely 33% Democratic party identification.

To illustrate the tough odds Sen. Clark faces in this race, the only Democrat ever for any office to outperform a Republican in the 6th Congressional District is U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar. In 2006, Sen Klobuchar outperformed 6th District incumbent Rep. Mark Kennedy by a 4.8-point margin in his Senate bid, 50.5 percent to 45.7 percent, with 3.2 percent of the 6th District vote going to IP candidate Robert Fitzgerald.

I think Sen. Clark has the political skill to mobilize the Democratic base and the personal charisma for broader appeal, though 6th District demographics impose severe structural constraints on the appeal of any Democratic candidate.

But two questions remain: (1) Will Maureen Reed stay in the race and (2) if so, will she mount a primary challenge for the nomination if she does not win the DFL endorsement or will she run on the Independence Party ticket?

If the 6th District contest becomes a three-way race, Bachmann is virtually assured of victory.

More detailed analysis:

http://www.immelman.us/news/can-a-democrat-beat-bachmann/