The Schultz Report: Cost of Senate race makes late entry by Ventura–or anyone else–unlikely

The MPR report this week touting the Minnesota US Senate race as the most expensive in the country is a reminder that there should be a very large asterisk beside any speculation about primary-season latecomers to the race. The $27 million raised through the first quarter of ’08, and the sure prospect that soon-to-be-revealed second quarter numbers will push the total substanitally higher, "make it very doubtful" that Jesse Ventura, Mike Ciresi, or anyone else will choose to join the battle, says David Schultz. "Part of what a war chest does is to scare off people. This is a race where each of the candidates has to raise and spend at least $12-15 million, and I’m guessing another $10-15 million is going to come from outside groups–this is at least a $45 million campaign.

"At this late juncture," he observes, "it’s hard to see how any candidate can raise even half that [$12-15 million] amount of money quickly. Many people’s attention turns to Mike Ciresi, because he loaned himself $2 million and was prepared to loan himself several million dollars earlier. He might have the resources to do it. Well, maybe he does, but I think at this point the obstacle of trying to raise that kind of money, get name recognition, and find [available media airspace] to buy TV and radio time as the general election approaches–I suspect at this point a lot of the airspace is already purchased. So I think it would be very hard.

"I’ve heard it suggested that even Jesse Ventura, a candidate  who has lots of  media appeal right off the bat, would need to raise  $2-3 million fairly rapidly. For any candidate that’s going to be difficult to do, with a lot of people probably already starting to tap out in terms of the money they have to give. We have an unusual confluence this year of increased demand for political contributions at the same time as we have a downturn in the economy. That makes it harder for new candidates to generate the resources they need to enter a race at the last minute."

Besides the phenomenal amount of money thrown at the contest, says Schultz, one of the more remarkable aspects of Coleman v. Franken so far is the largely issue-free tenor of the campaign. "What we’ve really had is a discussion almost totally devoid of [discussions] about the war, the economy, the subprime meltdown–the things voters want to hear about. Instead it’s been dragged rapidly into a lot of innuendo and rumor and mud-throwing."

Also in this week’s Schultz Report: A review of the "Unity" event last Friday featuring the first joint appearance by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

Listen: David Schultz on the big bucks in the Senate race and Obama/Clinton’s unity kickoff (14:47)