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Gov. Tim Pawlenty
Should Gov. Tim Pawlenty skip the Iowa caucuses? Yes, it’s ridiculously early to be contemplating such questions about the 2012 presidential campaign. But The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder raises that question in a post today. He notes that only candidates with strong Christian conservative bona fides will have a chance in the caucuses, meaning that Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee are the prohibitive favorites (and Mitt the Mormon doesn’t have a chance in hell).
Ambinder essentially lumps Pawlenty in with Romney in weighing whether he should skip the caucuses and head straight to New Hampshire:
Pawlenty’s main strategic challenge would be New Hampshire — figuring out how to defeat the Romney machine there. It might not be hard; since there won’t be a Democratic primary, as many as 60,000 independents could decide to vote Republican. Appealing to these independents on economic issues — and comforting them on social issues — is the test.
But Ambinder might be underestimating Pawlenty’s appeal to Christian conservatives in Iowa. As noted in this piece by Andy Birkey, Pawlenty is an evangelical Christian and attends Wooddale Church in Eden Prairie. The pastor of Wooddale is Leith Anderson, who just happens to be the president of the National Association of Evangelicals. That organization represents 45,000 churches and roughly 30 million evangelical Christians across the country. Those ties, along with the fact that Pawlenty has served two terms as governor of a neighboring state, might make him a formidable opponent in the Iowa caucuses.
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6 Comments »
Comment posted October 20, 2009 @ 5:39 pm
“Mitt the Mormon doesn’t have a chance in hell”
This is why the Republicans will lose in 2012.
Comment posted October 20, 2009 @ 6:24 pm
Tough call. Iowa Republicans are increasingly evangelical (almost rare when I lived there a quarter-century ago), but former governor Terry Branstad may run for governor again, and it’s hard saying how his supporters would vote.
Frankly, I don’t think Pawlenty will play well in Iowa, but the Republican caucuses are all about the base and the base is, increasingly, nuts. On the other hand, you have to be a little nutty to go out on a Monday night in Iowa in January.
Comment posted October 20, 2009 @ 10:02 pm
All those responsible New Hampshire independents and Democrats
will take it upon themselves to vote for a traditional,
non-theocratic, Republican.
They are pretty astute. They get to see the candidates up close, and repeatedly. They do pay attention to the results left behind by people who have been in office.
In other words, they are Pawlenty’s and Palin’s worst nightmare, and will go for Romney in a heartbeat.
Pingback posted October 21, 2009 @ 5:46 am
[...] 1992. Still, it would be a terrible mistake for Pawlenty to skip Iowa. As Minnesota Independent notes, Pawlenty is an evangelical whose pastor heads up the National Association of Evangelicals, a group [...]
Comment posted October 21, 2009 @ 8:54 am
I think Paul’s analysis is spot on. I think Iowa is tailor-made for TPaw, both because of his evangelical roots but also because of his retail politicking skills. Being able to talk at the lunch counter or in a family’s living room is something that TPaw is very skilled at. That sounds like a winning combination to me.
Pingback posted October 22, 2009 @ 8:51 am
[...] he the man to challenge Huckabee in Iowa? Some say yes. Some, rightly in this blog’s opinion, wonder about the future of Iowa in general. [...]
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