Survey: Passing health reform improves Dems’ electoral chances

Rep. Walz discusses health care reform at Netroots Minnesota. Photo: Paul Schmelzer, MnIndy

“If my vote sends me back to Mankato West to teach geography, so be it,” said Rep. Tim Walz Saturday of the House health care reform bill. “Not getting health care care reform passed is what will send me back.” According to a new survey, he may be right on that last part. Public Policy Polling released results of a survey Monday that found that Democrats may face electoral consequences if they don’t get health care reform passed.

The PPP survey (pdf) asked who participants would vote for, Democrat or Republican, if the congressional election were held today. By a margin of 46 to 38, respondents preferred Democrats, but when asked who they’d vote for if Congress fails to pass a health care reform bill, the results were dead even: 40 percent to 40 percent. When asked how they’d vote if a health care plan was passed that included a public option, Democrats’ margin improved, to 46-41.

“Clearly Democrats need to pass a health care bill if they want to do well at the polls next year,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling, in a release Monday. “But they don’t need to take an all or nothing approach.  Allowing the status quo to remain rather than accepting a bill without a public option would be a poor decision politically.”

As Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com puts it, for Dems it’s “damned if they do; damnder if they don’t”:

I don’t particularly expect a boost in the Democrats’ numbers if they pass a health care bill: the plan, after all, has become somewhat unpopular. Their numbers might even get a little worse. But I’d expect a larger drop in their numbers if they fail to pass health care..

…Both polling and common sense would seem to dictate that the best way for Democrats to cut their losses would be to pass a health care bill — particularly one with a public option — and then move on to debating financial regulation and a jobs program, where public sentiment should be more on their side. They should probably not expect to gain ground if they pass health care — but they’re likely to lose more if they don’t.

PPP’s phone survey of 1,066 registered voters has a margin of error is +/-3.0%