DFL gubernatorial candidates open wide lead

Kelliher, Emmer and Dayton

All three Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party gubernatorial candidates in Minnesota hold large advantages over GOP candidate Tom Emmer in a new poll from Decision Resources Ltd. The poll has former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton as the strongest general election candidate, beating Emmer 40-28 percent. But the other two DFL candidates are not far behind, with state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher up 38-28 percent and former state House Minority Leader Matt Entenza topping Emmer 34-27 percent. The poll had a plus or minus 3.5 percent margin of error.

This is the first poll to show any of the candidates with a statistically significant lead. The DFL’s new lead in Decision Resources Ltd.’s numbers seems to be gained by a surge in support for Independence candidate Tom Horner. In previous polls, Horner had generally pulled around 10 percent, but in the new poll he averages 18 percent support depending on which DFL candidate is included.

Horner is a former member of the Republican Party before switching to the Independence ticket, and the boost in Horner’s numbers appears to be the result of pulling supporters away from Emmer. In most states a surge by a third-party candidate would seem unlikely, but Minnesotans have a strong history of voting for candidates outside the major parties. Beyond former Gov. Jesse Ventura’s infamous win, the Independence candidate Tim Penny gained 16 percent of the vote, around where Horner polls now, in the 2002 governor’s race.