Same-sex marriage advocates think 2010 is their best chance yet to realize equality for gay and lesbian people. But a key factor will be who ends up occupying the governor’s mansion after Tim Pawlenty moves out — and whether he or she supports Minnesota joining the five other states and Washington, DC., that allow same-sex couples to wed. With the exception of Republican candidate Tom Emmer, all major candidates for governor are strongly in favor of same-sex marriage.

“For people who believe that we need to make Minnesota a place where people are not discriminated against because of who they are or who they love, this election is critical,” said Monica Meyer, public policy director of OutFront Minnesota. “We are on the verge of being able to right some wrongs in state laws. In this election, voters have an opportunity to vote for candidates who champion justice and equality for all Minnesotans.”

Of the candidates for governor, all but the Republican seem enthusiastic about making LGBT equality a reality.

Mark Dayton

Mark Dayton has said he will sign legislation legalizing same-sex marriage, but he wasn’t always the strongest supporter. In a 2004 interview with the Associated Press, he said America wasn’t ready for gay marriage.

“I don’t believe that society should be forced to accept what is being called gay marriage, and I think it would be harmful to, just as I think the demagoguery and dehumanization of some of the proponents of these measures is very harmful to gay and lesbian men and women, I think that forcing quote unquote gay marriage, [the] general citizenry I do not believe yet wants that or is ready to support that.”

Fast forward to 2010 and Dayton says times have changed.

“I unequivocally support marriage equality, meaning the right of any person to marry legally the person he or she loves,” he told the Minnesota Independent.

“I think that enough of the citizenry has shifted that the right leader can persuade them to support same-sex marriage,” he said. “In particular, my sons’ and campaign staff’s generation of people in their late teens, twenties, and early thirties are especially supportive of marriage equality.”

Dayton was outspoken as a U.S. Senator against a federal constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage and civil unions: he called it “un-American, un-Christian, and unwise” and “ugly, divisive, and destructive.” He also introduced a bill that would give federal employees in domestic partnerships the same rights as married couples.

Matt Entenza

But the weight of Minnesota’s gay lobby went to Matt Entenza at the DFL State Convention when Stonewall DFL initially endorsed him for governor this year (Stonewall was forced to drop that endorsement when Entenza lost the party endorsement). Entenza notes that since 1994, he’s been endorsed by the group every time he’s run for office.

Entenza recently told ECM Publishers’ editorial board that he will sign a gay marriage bill if passed by the legislature, but it would have to include provisions for religious institutions that choose not to perform or recognize same-sex marriage.

“But if the Legislature passed that, and groups wanted to do that, yes, I would sign it,” he said.

As minority leader in the Minnesota House, Entenza pushed for domestic partner benefits for state employees — an issue on which then-Gov. Jesse Ventura agreed — although House Republicans killed the state employees union contract that would have allowed the benefits.

“I don’t think it’s the business of government to decide how committed people are,” Entenza told the Minnesota Daily in 2001. “People go to Vegas and get married after they’ve known each other two days and that seems to be OK with conservatives.”

Entenza was also one of only four legislators to sponsor a bill to legalize same-sex marriage back in 1998 — the first time legislators had ever considered such a bill.

Margaret Anderson Kelliher

When Entenza lost the endorsement of DFL activists at the state convention, the Stonewall DFL threw their support behind Margaret Anderson Kelliher. Kelliher has represented what is probably the most LGBT-heavy district in the state which encompasses the “gayborhood” of Loring Park and the northern portion of Uptown in Minneapolis.

She says she will sign same-sex marriage into law if she is Minnesota’s next governor.

“It’s a matter of fair treatment, and when you look at the number of different unfairnesses in the law on this issue, I think that it’s a matter that we can solve,” she said.

She rallied gay activists at the Capitol in 2008 when she spoke of how times are changing gay rights in Minnesota.

“When I think of when I first came to the House of Representatives (in 1999) and how much hate would often be spewed on the House floor, and how much that’s changed, it’s fabulous because instead of that hate, we’ve replaced that hate with another four-letter word, and that’s ‘love,’” she said. “We have replaced it with love and with the word ‘fair.’ We are going to keep fighting on your behalf to make the laws of this state more fair and more just. And we are moving things forward with your help.”

In the last biennium, Kelliher cosponsored numerous bills aimed at lessening the inequalities that exist in Minnesota law pertaining to same sex couples, including a series of “death rights” bills promoted by LGBT group Project 515. She also cosponsored a bill to allow marriage rights for same-sex couples legally married in other states.

Tom Horner

Independence Party candidate Tom Horner has staked out a similar position to the DFL candidates on the issue of same-sex marriage — Horner would sign a bill to legalize it.

“I think gays and lesbians should be equal members in all aspects of our society,” he said last week in a live blog with The Same Rowdy Crowd.

On legalizing gay marriage, Horner said, “In the meantime, I’ve been working to eliminate the statutory discrimination against same-sex partners.”

Horner’s work has been with Project 515, an organization devoted to spotlighting and correcting the 515 ways Minnesota statutes discriminate against same-sex couples.

Horner’s former public relations firm, Himle-Horner, did PR work for the organization.

There couldn’t be a sharper contrast between the positions held by the DFL and IP candidates and that of Republican party-endorsed candidate Tom Emmer. He has been a staunch opponent of marriage rights for same-sex couples.

Tom Emmer

“I believe marriage is the union between one man and one woman,” he says on his campaign website. “As a legislator, I have consistently supported the constitutional marriage amendment that protects traditional marriage.”

In 2007, Emmer authored a constitutional amendment to prohibit same-sex marriage and civil unions.

In many instances, Emmer has tried to change language in bills to that same-sex couples cannot benefit. In a bill to create standards around surrogate motherhood, Emmer attempted to replace the word “parents” with the words “mother and father.” In a wrongful death bill this session, Emmer questioned the use of the term “domestic partner” just as he has in bills aimed at providing benefits for same-sex partners.

Emmer has also been criticized for his association with Christian hard rock ministry, You Can Run But You Cannot Hide Intl., Inc., which has made incendiary statements about the morality of imprisoning and executing homosexuals. Emmer’s campaign had purchased table space at the group’s fundraiser and visited with the group on the radio and in person.

“These are nice people. Are we going to agree on everything? No,” Emmer said of the ministry. “I really appreciate their passion and — you know what? — I respect their point of view,” he said. “I respect their right to have whatever view. That’s what makes it a great country. You don’t have to agree with it.”

Already, national groups have targeted Minnesota on the issue of same-sex marriage, and that is expected to intensify following a lawsuit filed by three same-sex couples in May. Two couples from Minneapolis and one from Duluth filed the lawsuit against the State of Minnesota alleging that Minnesota’s ban on same-sex marriage violates due process and freedom of association rights.

The National Organization for Marriage has bought $200,000 on television ads in Minnesota attacking DFL candidates Dayton, Entenza and Kelliher, and IP candidate Horner for supporting marriage equality for same-sex couples.

The Minnesota Family Council is predicting that same-sex marriage will become a key issue in the campaigns.

“With all the DFL primary candidates for governor — Anderson-Kelliher, Dayton and Entenza — and the Independence Party endorsed candidate Tom Horner supportive of homosexual marriage,” the group said in a statement in May, “the protection of marriage between a man and a woman will definitely be an issue in the upcoming election.”

Meyer of OutFront Minnesota said that with a LGBT friendly legislature, finding a LGBT-supportive governor to replace Pawlenty is important.

“In the past few years, the majority of the Minnesota Legislature has voted in favor of legislation to help address some of the discrimination LGBT people and their families face,” she said. “In fact, OutFront Minnesota had six bills passed by a Legislature hopeful about addressing the bullying LGBT and others face in our schools, ending the unequal treatment some state employees face because they are not allowed to provide health care to their domestic partners and children and tackling other areas of discrimination in our state laws, but all of those bills were vetoed by our Republican Governor, Tim Pawlenty.”