Iowa caucus poll site: Don’t overlook Pawlenty

Tim Pawlenty. Photo: Facebook

Tim Pawlenty’s presidential poll numbers in Iowa — he garnered three percent of the vote among likely caucus-goers in a survey released Monday — may be low, but he shouldn’t be overlooked, according to an analysis at The Iowa Republican, which conducted the poll.

First, it’s early, and Pawlenty has time to build name recognition. Second, the poll gauges how well ten hypothetical candidates would do in the nation’s first caucus state. If any of the frontrunners — say, Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee, who together won a third of the support in the poll — don’t run, the poll is “worthless,” writes Craig Robinson:

The biggest mover in this version of the poll was the undecided voters.  In the poll that included Huckabee and Palin, 23 percent were undecided.  With Huckabee and Palin out of the mix, the number of undecided voters jumped to 39 percent.  Other candidates who gained in the poll without the presence of Huckabee and Palin were Romney, who gained eight points, Gingrich, who added four points to his total, and Pawlenty and Paul, who each increased his previous number by two percent.

Later he cautions against overlooking Pawlenty:

The three percent in the poll indicates that he is moving the ball in the right direction and is making connections in Iowa. Pawlenty also has the benefit of having some major players with Iowa roots backing his potential campaign.

Longtime political operatives Terry Nelson and Sara Taylor, two Iowa natives, are already on board with Pawlenty. Those two are joined by Chuck Larson, Jr., a well-connected former Iowa GOP Chair, state legislator, and Ambassador. Karen Slifka, a veteran of numerous presidential campaigns who has also served a stint with the RNC, is also on board with Pawlenty.