Dayton and Emmer tied early in general election campaign

Democrat Mark Dayton and Republican Tom Emmer are tied at 34 percent in a new poll on the gubernatorial race from MPR and the Humphrey Institute. Independence Party candidate Tom Horner garners 13 percent in the poll, which has a +/- 5.3 percent margin of error. That leaves 19 percent of likely voters undecided as the campaigns head into Labor Day weekend, the traditional starting point for general election season.

The poll is a marked break in Emmer’s favor from previous polls. Almost every poll since the start the beginning of summer has shown Emmer trailing Dayton by significant margins. MPR’s poll is only the second poll conducted after Dayton secured the Democratic nomination earlier this month, but that last poll had Dayton ahead by nine points and came from Rasmussen, which often slightly favors Republican candidates.

Are MPR’s numbers the sign of a changed electorate or just an aberration?

That will be difficult to judge until another polling firm takes a look at the race, but there are a few troubling signs for Dayton. Though the DFL primary was heavily contested, Dayton’s two Democratic opponents ran positive campaigns that did not attack the frontrunner’s at times tumultuous term in the U.S. Senate. That favorable treatment ended as soon as Dayton became the DFL candidate, with the state Republican Party releasing an attack ad the day after the primary.

Dayton has also been targeted in a television ad by a new independent expenditure committee whose source of funding has yet to be revealed. The new poll could indicate that the attacks against Dayton may be beginning to resonate with voters as non-primary voters turn their attention to the general election campaigns.

Dayton may also be more concerned about polling results after he squeaked by in the DFL primary. In the days and weeks leading up to the primary, Dayton generally polled well, with statistically significant leads over the other two candidates. Dayton held a 16-point lead in one poll released the weekend before the Aug. 10 primary. But on primary day, Margaret Anderson Kelliher led Dayton early in the night as the vote-count began, with Dayton only managing to win by a narrow margin.

Then again, MPR’s poll may just be a negative blip on Dayton’s generally positive numbers. Most campaigns usually experience one poll that in retrospect is seen as an outlier and the trends have all broken Dayton’s way to date. With 19 percent of voters listed as undecided, the poll leaves plenty of room for either candidate to open a wide lead. TPM’s PollTracker still shows Dayton averaging 6.5 percent lead over Emmer as shown in the graphic above.

Patrick Caldwell is the American Independent’s Minnesota correspondent.