Dayton ahead in Minnesota Poll
Monday, September 27, 2010 at 8:03 am
- 1 Comment
Mark Dayton Photo: Facebook
The Star Tribune’s Minnesota Poll shows DFLer Mark Dayton with a comfortable lead over GOP gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer and Independence party candidate Tom Horner. The poll sampled likely voters, including those with cell phones, and found 39 percent picking Dayton, 30 percent for Emmer and 18 percent for Horner. The poll’s margin of error was 4.1 percent.
The poll surveyed respondents on who their vote would go to if Horner was not in the race. Dayton’s lead climbs to 11 percent without Horner; Dayton gets 49 percent and Emmer gets 38 percent. Of Horner supporters, 42 percent would vote for Dayton and 31 percent would vote for Emmer.
Only Emmer had a net unfavorable rating in the poll, but well within the margin of error at 40 percent favorable and 41 percent unfavorable. Dayton had the best favorable rating with 51 percent to 38 percent while Horner had 38 percent favorable and 28 percent unfavorable.
The poll differs greatly from a Rasmussen poll that found the race a statistical tie with Emmer at 42 percent and Dayton at 41 percent. That poll was automated and only contacted landline phones.
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Comment posted September 27, 2010 @ 5:20 pm
The Minnesota poll is consistently skewed in favor of Democratic candidates, and based on past experience, has proven itself unreliable. There is no reason to believe this time is different.
In particular, this is poll is not only inconsistent with the Rasmussen poll, as acknowledged, but also the MPR/University poll (hardly a bastian of conservative hard-liners) conducted a few weeks ago. Dayton may win the election, I think it is likely in fact that he will win, but I doubt the margins are nearly as large in his favor as this poll would suggest. Based on past performance, I think Rasmussen and MPR are both far closer to correct.
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