Dayton’s lead grows but race remains close

With 18 days left until the election, Democrat Mark Dayton appears to hold a slight edge, according to the latest poll on the Minnesota gubernatorial race. In a new KSTP/SurveryUSA poll, Dayton leads Republican Tom Emmer 42-37 percent, with Independence Party candidate Tom Horner trailing far behind the two major-party candidates with only 14 percent support. The survey of 712 likely voters was conducted Oct. 11–13 and has a +/- 3.7 percent margin of error.

Dayton gained a slight uptick in support from the last KSTP/SurveyUSA poll conducted a month ago. In that poll Dayton only led Emmer by two percent. Emmer’s support remained fairly consistent between the two polls, and Dayton’s minor surge appears to come at the expense of Horner. The Independence candidate dropped four points from his 18 percent show of support a month ago.

One of the main challenges for third-party candidates is convincing voters that they have a viable chance of being elected. As Horner’s numbers drop approaching election day, his level of support could continue to decrease at an increased pace if voters begin to perceive him as a spoiler rather than a winning candidate. Based on this latest poll, that could play to Dayton’s favor. Though Horner is a former Republican, he represented the more moderate, Arne Carlson-side of the party while Tom Emmer has placed himself on the side of the far-right. However, with his plan to institute significantly higher tax rates, Dayton can hardly be called a traditional moderate either.

Polls of the gubernatorial race have shown a variety of results over the past few months, but the trend recently has been toward a tied race, essentially. Rasmussen’s polling has been within the margin of error, switching between leads for Dayton and Emmer. But outside analysts have leaned toward a slight edge for Dayton.

TPM’s PollTracker gives Dayton a four-percent-average lead and FiveThirtyEight gives the Democrat a 76-percent chance of winning the governor’s office.