Dayton’s chance of winning at 85 percent, says NY Times’ Nate Silver

YAY!!

It’s only fitting, I suppose, that Minnesota have a bone fide mental defective for governor.

Hey Dennis. Your comments are getting lopsided in terms of the ratio between thoughtful discourse and namecalling/trolling. As you’re aware, we’d like to keep it civil around here, and that means refraining from namecalling. Now, I know there’s a lot of pooh flung around here, on both sides of the aisle, and I should probably police it better. However, the majority of your comments have little substance beyond your anger or dislike for Democrats. I’m not saying this comment is the worst, but it does prompt me to respond. Please try to tone down the namecalling and insults. I’d prefer not to start deleting what you have to say. Thanks.

Mark Dayton didn’t win in my precinct at the DFL caucus. He didn’t even bother to campaign at the DFL state convention. And he won’t get my vote. I

The problem is that these results are a product of flawed polls that heavily favor democrats. A St. Cloud State poll???? c’mon Nate, you must be joking. Most of these pollsters also predicted that Mike Hatch would beat Pawlenty by 8 points in 2006.

I have a feeling you are way off this year.

Folks, you heard it here first. Tom Emmer wins in MN.

100,000 variations are meaningless if the model is flawed, and I really doubt that anyone has developed an accurate model for the current political/economic climate.

I’ll take the poll with the usual grain of salt, but I am not buying into the probability estimate.

Mark Dayton is the best case scenario in leading Minnesota into a brighter future. Dayton understands that it is demand, and not tax cuts for the top 2%, that create jobs. Dayton understands that tax cuts for wealthy simply mean a shift in tax burden to the middle class and the poor, through property tax, sales tax, and user fees. 8 years of republican “tax cuts” (higher property taxes, user fees, increased state debt) has been enough of a burden. I urge everyone to vote for Mark Dayton for governor on Tuesday, November 5, 2010!!!

Tom Emmer is more likely to win, if you look at another poll.

“A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Dayton still barely ahead, with 44% support to Emmer’s 41%. Horner now picks up 10% of the vote

Earlier this month, Dayton held a 40% to 38% lead over Emmer, with Horner receiving 15% support. ”

The drop in support for Horner and the increase in Tom Emmer show that many have realizing that a vote for Horner is a vote for Dayton, and those voters are shifting their support for Tom Emmer. Based on this trend, Tom Emmer is much more likely to win the election.

The NY Times article that puts Dayton’s chance of winning at 85 percent is pure propaganda to try and discourage voters by suggesting that their vote will not make a difference.

Many dedicated Democratic voters are voting for Tom Emmer this election, because they are not too excited about Dayton, who is committed to raising taxes and borrowing millions rather than making the budget cuts that MN really needs to avoid the disaster of several other states that are in financial trouble.

Tom Emmer has a very good chance of winning and everyone’s vote will be very important. Your vote could be the one that tips the election – so don’t listen to this propaganda and get out there are vote!

Mark Dayton may be one of the very few politicians I have ever seen who seems sincere, empathic, and compassionate. What arefreshing change that will be to have a kind person as state governor.